BlackJackTrader
- Thread starter PartyMarty
- Start date
hi MiniDowTrader, Email and all:
I haven't really looked at the 9 contract claim, but common sense tells me that trading 9 contracts via a system that could potentially lose 4 or 5 points on one trade could be potentially devastating. Let's assume you take a 4 point loss; 9x200 on the ES incurs an $1800.00 drawdown, plus 9 commissions (I currently pay $9.00 per round trip). So roughly, $1,880.00 loss in a $4,500 account is roughly 35% of that account---more than ten fold the recommended loss scenario relative to any account.
One has to be very careful of schemes that say, "you can magnify greatly even the smallest profits by simply trading multiple contracts." It sounds great, and so is the Martingdale or Ponzi gambling scenarios (where you keeping adding to losing positions). Now don't get me wrong; I'm all for multiple contracts, but I would highly advise starting with no more than two on a 5k account---and only with a system having a better than 70% accuracy ratio.
I just don't see BJT showing that degree of accuracy; my own backtesting of 3 months of data shows about 60% accuracy for longs, and 40% or less for shorts. But to be fair to BJT, those results are based on setting no more than a 2.5 to 3 point stop loss. They suggest using the opposite end of the opening range for your stop, and I personally find that intolerable but hey, that's me.
I also meant to correct an earlier statement about the BJT; to the best of my knowledge, this system doesn't ask you to take a trade based on a breakout set at a certain range (3 ticks, then hold position till EOD), though there is a system that does, and it's based on a 90 minute opening range breakout scheme.
Instead, you are supposed to wait for a pullback of a few points and then enter your trade at a 'discounted' price.
I've searched literally hundreds of ways to find the best price without either missing trades, or experiencing steep drawdowns. Of all the things I've looked at, one indicator seems to be emerging as a candidate that might be useful. Has anyone looked at CCI (set at default of 18 periods)? You might want to wait for a breakout, and then only consider entering, say, a long position, when CCI bottoms below -200. IN some cases, CCI never gets that low (especially in a real strong market), so you would have to use some judgement.
I'd be interested if anyone looks at some backtested charts using a 60 minute breakout scheme, followed by a pullback using CCI. BTW, I've been loking at 3 minute candles for this.
Best,
traderon
I haven't really looked at the 9 contract claim, but common sense tells me that trading 9 contracts via a system that could potentially lose 4 or 5 points on one trade could be potentially devastating. Let's assume you take a 4 point loss; 9x200 on the ES incurs an $1800.00 drawdown, plus 9 commissions (I currently pay $9.00 per round trip). So roughly, $1,880.00 loss in a $4,500 account is roughly 35% of that account---more than ten fold the recommended loss scenario relative to any account.
One has to be very careful of schemes that say, "you can magnify greatly even the smallest profits by simply trading multiple contracts." It sounds great, and so is the Martingdale or Ponzi gambling scenarios (where you keeping adding to losing positions). Now don't get me wrong; I'm all for multiple contracts, but I would highly advise starting with no more than two on a 5k account---and only with a system having a better than 70% accuracy ratio.
I just don't see BJT showing that degree of accuracy; my own backtesting of 3 months of data shows about 60% accuracy for longs, and 40% or less for shorts. But to be fair to BJT, those results are based on setting no more than a 2.5 to 3 point stop loss. They suggest using the opposite end of the opening range for your stop, and I personally find that intolerable but hey, that's me.
I also meant to correct an earlier statement about the BJT; to the best of my knowledge, this system doesn't ask you to take a trade based on a breakout set at a certain range (3 ticks, then hold position till EOD), though there is a system that does, and it's based on a 90 minute opening range breakout scheme.
Instead, you are supposed to wait for a pullback of a few points and then enter your trade at a 'discounted' price.
I've searched literally hundreds of ways to find the best price without either missing trades, or experiencing steep drawdowns. Of all the things I've looked at, one indicator seems to be emerging as a candidate that might be useful. Has anyone looked at CCI (set at default of 18 periods)? You might want to wait for a breakout, and then only consider entering, say, a long position, when CCI bottoms below -200. IN some cases, CCI never gets that low (especially in a real strong market), so you would have to use some judgement.
I'd be interested if anyone looks at some backtested charts using a 60 minute breakout scheme, followed by a pullback using CCI. BTW, I've been loking at 3 minute candles for this.
Best,
traderon
One thing you've got to be careful about when reading the "trade results" of many of the vendors out there; many of them will give you examples of trades "that failed" to show they're stand up guys, but they'll always bias the 'failed' trade in their favor by saying something like "if you got out of this trade before it went bad", you would have broken even.
But they never tell you HOW they determined the trade was bad, or how you could have broken even. End result? Their system has far more wins than losses, and the gullible public gets suckered in.
TR
But they never tell you HOW they determined the trade was bad, or how you could have broken even. End result? Their system has far more wins than losses, and the gullible public gets suckered in.
TR
Has anyone noticed that BJT used to post daily results for their trades
and now they are just doing a weekly result total? They have actually
went back in time and did this with all of their trades to make their
method look better.
And of course they have the $179 special to sucker you in. I bet
you get nothing for the $179 but if you want to be a trader you have
to take calculated risks and paying up the $179 is one of them!
Funny...
It's one guy and he's a dick-head.
if $900 bucks is about 100 times too much, why would anyone want to pay $179.00?? (LOL).
I do know a few traders who tried to ask questions and see actual income statements, but the vendor blew them off. Oh, what a surprise.
Can't the Commodity Futures Traders Association investigate or vhett people selling questionable methods? Seems like anyone can sell anything and ask ridiculous prices without having to be accountable and that's plain wrong.
Thank God for traders forums like this one; we can at least warn one another and spread the word; that's *our* leverage.
TR
I do know a few traders who tried to ask questions and see actual income statements, but the vendor blew them off. Oh, what a surprise.
Can't the Commodity Futures Traders Association investigate or vhett people selling questionable methods? Seems like anyone can sell anything and ask ridiculous prices without having to be accountable and that's plain wrong.
Thank God for traders forums like this one; we can at least warn one another and spread the word; that's *our* leverage.
TR
A big big waster of money. It is all about trading range extension on ES. But I don't think you can make a living by just trading range extension, which is only valid under certain context.
If you really want it that bad, spend $30 on Amazon to buy "Mind over Markets", which contains all the info in BJT and much much more.
I really appreciate a forum like this, which saved me thousands of buck.
There is no shortcut to trading, anything advertised as a magic traing to wealth is a trap. There is a steep learning curve in trading.
If you really want it that bad, spend $30 on Amazon to buy "Mind over Markets", which contains all the info in BJT and much much more.
I really appreciate a forum like this, which saved me thousands of buck.
There is no shortcut to trading, anything advertised as a magic traing to wealth is a trap. There is a steep learning curve in trading.
Manual includes 15 pages of text. Site has a wolf, a wolf-chick and a chart. Method down to 5 contracts instead of 9 and he has no back results. He must of gotten in trouble some how. What a winner. "You are the predator and your prey is the S&P E-Mini". More like Jack is the predator and the unsuspecting are the prey.