Blackjack player beats 3 Atlantic City Casinos for $15.1M

Quote from scorpion:

if we read a story about a gambler that lost millions playing bj in the casino we would call him a idiot .. Now the guy that wins millions is called only lucky.. that does not make sense . luck plays a part in everything in life you can say. Not many people know what his style of play is or his win & loss swings in the game were. With his experience & bankroll to play with confidence that help put the odds in his favor to be profitable. being a skilled player with money makes the world of difference on how a person plays & the end results. it takes money to make money people always say. this was not your average dumb player with scared money trying to make a few dollars. this guy was willing to risk a few million to play his strategy at the game. If gambling is a 50/50 proposition how the player handles his win & losses makes the difference. this guy is Not a lucky high roller but rather someone that followed a strategy & earned his money with his talent. No different then any of the top poker players out their with the skillset of the game. he actually made more money in short order then the best poker players that play these days. people should give him credit for what he accomplished in winning at the game & beating the casino 3 times . a rarity. we don't know his strategy & can only speculate about his approach. you can call it luck & skill . he is a great blackjack player that knows how to win. hopefully we will hear more about. .. one sharp player ..


so you agree with me, and not the idiots who think this was just a lucky streak
 
Quote from jhiro:

card counting illegal.. . has it ever been contested in a court of law?

Yeap and it is NOT illegal in New Jersey. One of the famous blackjack players took the casinos to court and won.
Actually, it is not illegal in Vegas either, but they can refuse you service based on pretty much anything, so if they notice you counting, they can ban you. But I don't think there is a Nevada court ruling on it...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting#Legal_status

"In the United States, card counting without an outside device is completely legal. Casinos believe they avoid losing money by preventing card counters from playing."

"In Las Vegas, casinos are allowed to do this because the casino is private property, and the owner can decide who is allowed to enter."

"Ken Uston, one of the most widely known card counters, took the Atlantic City casinos to court in the case of Uston v. Resorts International where he achieved victory as the court ruled that casinos could not ban skilled players. But this did prompt the casinos to start taking measures to hinder card counters."
 
Quote from nickm:



*Carl Icahn is positioning Tropicana as a boutique casino for high-rollers. Could be a hell of a promotion where card counting may have been detecting and ignored in order to get into the paper and get action by chumming the waters a bit.


Thanks for the additional colour, Nick. This particular notion seems quite plausible, though of course it doesn't fit well with the CEO's replacement. Doesn't Icahn's invitation to Johnson to return suggest that they've isolated the reason for his success? (They had VT to rerun and analyse, I presume?)

Your preferred hypothesis is a good candidate but requires us to have more info on his betting patterns and bankroll fluctuations. Surely there must have been some casino worker gossip to shed a little light on this?

On a side note, I saw on your website that you refer to Ace Tracking as another name for Shuffle Tracking. Back in the day when I was playing mostly in Europe for a team, these were two distinctly separate strategies: Ace Tracking was purely memory-based, as you describe, whereas ST demanded a detailed running count.
 
I can intuitively count cards. Specifically, under ordinary circumstances, you expect "10 cards" to come up 4 times out of 13, which is....ummm...about 30% of the time. But sometimes I can just feel that they are coming up way more often, or way less often without conciously counting them. When that happens, I adjust my strategy accordingly. Seems to put the odds in my favor. I don't live near a casino, so I seldom get to play, but I always do well. Does anyone else do this? Sort of "feel" whether there is a drought of 10s or a flood of 10s without counting them?

SM
 
When I was counting cards, I once knew a 3 was coming when I had a 17. I hit on a 17, and before they let the card come, the dealer cleared it with his pit boss or whoever it is that is higher than him. A 3 came, and I won the hand. I felt the 3 was going to come this was not from counting.

Once I was counting cards, and a manager came a took me to another table. This could have also been how I was betting. I was betting cash not chips, playing $ 100 bills.

By the way, its very easy to count cards, and I was using the same system as that movie 21 a long time before it came out. That system was published in a book on how to count cards a long time before the movie.

What's funny is that the movie seemed to claim you had to be a MIT math genius to count cards, which is silly. Maybe you had to be a genius to figure out the original system and make money off of it.

I always thought it was strange when I was at a table and I was the only one counting cards, yes many were using the basic system which says don't hit on a 15, but they did not alternate their bets in order to bet more when the count was favorable.

Quote from Smart Money:

I can intuitively count cards. Specifically, under ordinary circumstances, you expect "10 cards" to come up 4 times out of 13, which is....ummm...about 30% of the time. But sometimes I can just feel that they are coming up way more often, or way less often without conciously counting them. When that happens, I adjust my strategy accordingly. Seems to put the odds in my favor. I don't live near a casino, so I seldom get to play, but I always do well. Does anyone else do this? Sort of "feel" whether there is a drought of 10s or a flood of 10s without counting them?

SM
 
I don't see where the opportunity to count card lies. At least here in Canada we use about 5 decks all mixed together. The cards are never seen while being shuffled. maybe you can catch a glimpse, but the cards are probably moving at a faster pace then our brain can see.

I once caused a table to be closed due to my betting strategy, It was very simple, added with the basics of when to hit or stay it was surprisingly consistent for 2 nights.






Quote from oraclewizard77:

When I was counting cards, I once knew a 3 was coming when I had a 17. I hit on a 17, and before they let the card come, the dealer cleared it with his pit boss or whoever it is that is higher than him. A 3 came, and I won the hand. I felt the 3 was going to come this was not from counting.

Once I was counting cards, and a manager came a took me to another table. This could have also been how I was betting. I was betting cash not chips, playing $ 100 bills.

By the way, its very easy to count cards, and I was using the same system as that movie 21 a long time before it came out. That system was published in a book on how to count cards a long time before the movie.

What's funny is that the movie seemed to claim you had to be a MIT math genius to count cards, which is silly. Maybe you had to be a genius to figure out the original system and make money off of it.

I always thought it was strange when I was at a table and I was the only one counting cards, yes many were using the basic system which says don't hit on a 15, but they did not alternate their bets in order to bet more when the count was favorable.
 
stock777.. good to see others that agree he is skilled player & not about the fact he was only lucky. i never heard of any players being this lucky . people seem to think its card counting. martindale betting . etc. who knows? maybe a combination of everything. but betting at his level it did not matter since he asked the casino for allowances to bet high dollar amounts. he is a skilled agressive player that knows how to walk when he wins. that takes discipline not to give it all back regardless the amount of money being risked. The key problem that many gamblers or traders have is the emotional attatchment to money. the pros know how to manage risk & follow their gameplan to be profitable.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

I like to solve mysteries, so I like this topic. Here is a very informative thread from a blackjack forum, 6 pages long with lots of math:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=22127

Now here is a website that proves what I mentioned earlier, that the 20% rebate's value is mostly psychological, and it doesn't give such a huge edge to the player.:

http://kiddynamitesworld.com/intuitive-probabilities-blackjack-and-loss-rebates/

It has 91 comments and the first one is from one of the original MIT players featured in the book and movie. Summary:

"a casino can profitably offer a 20% session rebate on blackjack, provided they require the players to play a certain number of hands. KD's post establishes the number of hands required. It's an interesting point that the number of hands per session required is surprisingly low, and the only mathematical question worth debating is whether KD has calculated the number of hands correctly."

"Interestingly, after only 20 hands, the gambler has lost the expected value edge that came from his 20% loss rebate."

---------------------------------------------

It is also mentioned that making 50 times of the max. bet is not such an incredible streak, it happens fairly often. The only difference with Johnson was the size of the max. bet.

P.S.: " ... even with a 50% loss rebate, the casino can break even on a 49.5% payout game in 1000 plays."

This all tracks very closely to what I was saying. Nothing to see here.
 
Quote from nickm:


* A number of people claim that Johnson has similar memory as Stu Ungar. Ungar was once bet $100K that he wont be able to know the value and suit of the last card in a 6 deck shoe, after every card (but the last) was dealt in front of him. Stu Won.

While intriguing, and of course you get bonus points for the Stu Ungar reference, this doesn't seem applicable. Even Ungar was unable to overcome a narrow min-max bet spread. He tried several times. His memory made him a sure winner at normal AC rules & stakes, but he didn't have any luck as a high roller either there or in Vegas simply because he couldn't vary his bet enough to make use of what he knew about the deck contents.


Random trivia: it was only a 3-deck shoe, not six decks. Still insanely impressive.
 
many people that play balckjack do not know perfect basic strategy or have of a understanding of proper bet sizing or risk mangement. most are dumb players that do not understand important aspects to play the game properly. The casino is threatened by any sharp players especially ones that are proficient in card counting. the idea of card counting is to adjust your basic strategy according to the flow of cards being dealt. what many people do is adjust their bet size drastically bringing attention to themsleves which is a dumb move. their needs to be a balance of bet size with counting to blend in & not bring attention that your a smart player. the casino rather have dumb players win at times then lose to any skilled player because they know they give up the house edge & they don't like that. only in blackjack. their are so many poor bj players out their that any skilled player sticks out like a sore thumb. better to act dumb but play smart to beat them at their own game. take the money & run.
 
Back
Top