Blackjack player beats 3 Atlantic City Casinos for $15.1M

Quote from stock777:

I call bullshit.

This player was not likely to be simply 'taking a shot' with that kind of money.

Only an imbecile would do that , and imbeciles don't often have that kind of green.
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You clearly know nothing about gambling. Big players ("whales" in industry parlance) frequently take shots at negative expectation games or games that could be positive expectation, but where the player lacks the needed skill.

The continual existence of multi-million dollar baccarat action proves that there are plenty of people with tons of money who are too stupid to know when they have the worst of it or too compulsive to care (or both).

Based on the information presented, there is no reason whatsoever to think he had an actual edge at blackjack.
 
2 articles about the super secret Blackjack Ball. The first explaining the event:

http://www.cigaraficionado.com/webfeatures/show/id/The-Blackjack-Ball_7304

"Think of it this way: as a group, the guests at Rubin's Blackjack Ball easily earn at least $10 million a year playing cards. *Assume that one Las Vegas casino is a particularly easy target and therefore absorbs the brunt of the financial assault. Given that most gaming stocks trade at approximately 20-times earnings, Blackjack Ball guests could cost the casino's parent company $200 million in stock value. "

The other is an account of one of the events:

http://www.maxrubin.net/ball_article.html

"It’s mere days after the turn of the Millennium, and 75 of the best blackjack players who’ve ever tricked a pit boss swarm the house, loaded with high hopes and bottles of comped champagne (that’s the price of admission).
Each one is primed, believing that tonight he or she can win the Millennium Blackjack Cup and the title of "World’s Best Blackjack Player."

"The smart money starts pounding some of the "easy" prop bets, such as "MIT beats ACES Team" at 6/5 (MIT gets all the action) and "Winner is over 40" at 2-1; the money goes with the experience and the latter is bet down to even money in minutes. "Woman will win" at 25-1 doesn’t get a single wager."

-----------------------------

* Well, this is from 1999, but 10 mill divided by 70, isn't that big for the average "best blackjack player".
 
Quote from Nine_Ender:

Blackjack is the one casino game where with proper play ( strategy AND counting ) that the player has a mathematical edge.
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You are correct it is possible to have a mathematical edge in some blackjack games with very skilled play. However, it is not the only game. It is also possible to have an edge by means of skill in standard poker and in sports/race betting. It is VERY occasionally possible to have an edge at video poker too - your actions at the machine itself will always be negative expectation, but sometimes that negative expectation is very small if the pay table is very good. In those cases a good incentives/cash back program can tip you over to positive expectation.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

* Well, this is from 1999, but 10 mill divided by 70, isn't that big for the average "best blackjack player".
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And the number got smaller from there when poker boomed and made it more attractive than blackjack for a skilled gambler. Lots of people switched (including, notoriously, Andy Bloch who would would have been on the aforementioned MIT team in '99).
 
these guys are highly skilled players with sound risk management & executed there gameplan flawlessly. not your ordinary lucky high roller. you can't walk in a casino play at that level & hope to get lucky to win. they have a skillset with discipline & the bankroll to put the odds in there favor. the casino will welcome them will open arms with the hope to get back some of their losses. very few people have won millions at craps or blackjack tables within days .. skilled players .. they guys are pro's
 
Quote from The Big D:

You clearly know nothing about gambling. Big players ("whales" in industry parlance) frequently take shots at negative expectation games or games that could be positive expectation, but where the player lacks the needed skill.

The continual existence of multi-million dollar baccarat action proves that there are plenty of people with tons of money who are too stupid to know when they have the worst of it or too compulsive to care (or both).

Based on the information presented, there is no reason whatsoever to think he had an actual edge at blackjack.
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You clearly are a shmuck.

Whales get that way by playing with an edge. Morons wind up posting nonsense here on good old et. Which do you think you are?
 
Quote from The Big D:

You are correct it is possible to have a mathematical edge in some blackjack games with very skilled play. However, it is not the only game. It is also possible to have an edge by means of skill in standard poker and in sports/race betting. It is VERY occasionally possible to have an edge at video poker too - your actions at the machine itself will always be negative expectation, but sometimes that negative expectation is very small if the pay table is very good. In those cases a good incentives/cash back program can tip you over to positive expectation.
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The casino gave away an edge, from this article,

They also agreed to discount 20 percent of his blackjack losses as an incentive to get him to play, he said. For instance, if he lost $1 million, the casinos would forgive $200,000.

This combined with the typically friendlier high limit room rules and playing perfect basic strategy was probably enough to push him into positive expectancy. Based on the man's profession and huge winning I am guessing he was also counting and varying his wager and play accordingly which is not illegal in the US and not 86-able in atlantic city. The casino really hung themselves with this promo, it was only a matter of time.

BTW, there are positive expectancy VP machines, full pay deuces wild pays 100.76% but it must be played perfectly and the machines are increasingly hard to find. The limits are low too, resulting in a lot slot-jockeying for what amounts to an $8 an hour job. Variance and risk of ruin are not trivial either, VP is a very volatile game. The only way I think it makes sense is if you are a retiree in Vegas with nothing else to do, with enough coin in you'll never pay for a meal :)
 
Quote from dcvtss:

They also agreed to discount 20 percent of his blackjack losses as an incentive to get him to play, he said. For instance, if he lost $1 million, the casinos would forgive $200,000.
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What I would like to know is, at what point did the casino offer this? Was Johnson winning or losing? If he was winning already, why offer an extra edge to him? So just he would stay and not walk away with his winnings?

If he was losing already, offering the edge makes more sense, although maybe that was Johnson's tactic, lose first, get the edge than clear them out...
 
The 20 % discount for a players losses are common. a give back from the casino on top of all the other perks the big players receive. i heard a story recently that a high roller at the wynn las vegas picked out a ferrari from their showroom as a gift for the losses at the tables. this guy happened to lose 8 million on this visit . then again this high roller is a sheik that gambles millions on his visits. if you ever been their they have a ferrari dealership right in the casino which for a small fee you can view the showroom. the casino take care of their high rollers. they want the action win or lose. the casino will win over time.
 
Well, if he started to win after getting the discount and having some losses already, than the edge from the discount was psychological only, since he was winning afterward.
He only gets the discount if he losses, so it isn't like getting an extra 20% edge on the 1-2% good player edge.
 
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