BlackJack ( Math ) related Questions ..............

M

md2324

I have 3 BlackJack related questions, that I want to run by those here in the Forums
and see if I could get some help in confirming my thoughts and or tell me that I am nuts for thinking this way lol

Here are the 3 questions ( Thank you in advance for the help ):

1. Say your minimum Bet is $10 a Hand

Is there a mathematical advantage if for every ( $100 ) that you win , that you increase your minimum Bet to say $20 and NO MATTER WHAT happens, you never decrease your minimum Bet back down to $10 ( for your minimum Bet ) ?

2. To make $200 Profit a day playing $10 as your minimum Bet per had .......... What size Bankroll would you need ( $2,000 ) ?

I know there's a chance you could lose 8 hands in a row , and that you also have to take account the Extra $ you'll have to put down if you have to Split or Double Down

But as a generalization , is 200 x your minimum Bet " Sufficient " ?

3. What is the best way method to " keep a Count " for a Game that uses 6 - 8 Decks and that also re-shuffles the deck after so many hands ?

Should you just stick to the Ace 5 method, and always try and sit to the furthest right at the table , you you are Last to act and it gives ytou the most time to scan the cards at the table to " count " using the Ace 5 method ?

Thank you so much for the help

I love the game and these 3 questions have been rattling in my brain since I last played at the Casinos 3 weeks ago
 
Many years ago, I played blackjack and pay my way through college doing so. I had a lot of help a along the way to become a profitable player so I feel obligated to give back to my fellow blackjack players.


Before answering your questions, lets assume the playing rules. These rules are pretty standard at most casinos. Dealer hit soft 17, double down allowed after spilt up to four times, AA spilt once, double down any two cards, no surrender, and the dealer cut card is about 25% of the cards so in six deck game its playing down to 4.5 decks before they reshuffle. For a 2 deck games, they cut down to about 40% of the cards. There aren’t many single blackjack games around so if you can find one, even better. Assuming these are the rules, the lower number of decks the better it is for the card counter because the removal of small cards would turn the favor into the counter’s favor a lot faster.


There are simulators out there where you can enter in the playing rules, number of cut cards, betting size, and they will be able to evaluate a hourly wage for you.




1. There are no mathematical advantages in increasing your minimum bet to $20 from $10 after winning $100 dollars. Your bet size should be based on your true running count. Bet more only if when the odds are in your favor. When the count is very bad you should walk around, bet 5 dollars, or move to another blackjack table until they reshuffle. If you sit through a six deck shoe by yourself and the count is very bad from the very beginning you can easily lose 50 to 100 dollars betting $5 let alone $10 dollars.

2. You should try to have 100x your BIG BET to minimize your risk of ruins. So if your max bet is 100 dollars, you want to have at least 10k. If you max bet is $100 dollars when the count is good and you play 5-6 hours a day, there shouldn’t be a problem of making $200 a day if you are an efficient card counter.

3. Best system for 6-8 deck game that reshuffle the deck after so many hands? There are no systems that can beat this game. Card counter count cards to know when the favor is in their favor to bet bigger and know when to deviate from basic strategy. If they use an automatic reshuffle machine there are no ways to keep track of the cards. The best blackjack player in the world wouldn’t be able to beat this game so stay away.

Beating the casino counting card is not hard. It is beating the casino out of a lot of money and not getting kick out that’s the hard part. If you want to learn more about card counting I have two books to recommend you.


Professional blackjack by Stanford Wong: best card counting system for multiple deck games in my opinion.

Burning the Tables in Las Vegas: This book teaches you how to hide the fact that you are card counting. It also have many tables which show your exact edge based on the games that you are playing.


Lastly, the cut card is very important (if they cut too many cards you can’t beat the game) and the playing rules are very important to your win rate. If they make certain changes to the playing rules or cut too many cards, it can potentially make the game unbeatable.


Hope this help.
 
10_bagger , Fabtastic information and insight

Thank you so much for sharing

I haven't been to my local Casino in awhile , so I'm not 100% sure on the $5 games , but I'll take note when I go down there Next Month .

I do know that they Offer Surrender
And I believe they offer 3:2

At my local Casino ( in Mississippi ) , they use 6 - 8 Decks on all the table games I have seen ( not sure about in the High Rollers area ).

THey also " cut " and use an Automatic re-shuffler throughout the game ............... This is why I was wondering if I should stick to using a Method like the ( Ace / 5 count ) , since doing a True Card Counting method seems impossible to get any ( True ) running count at these games :(
 
6+ deck blackjack is unbeatable even with total penetration unless a new counting system has been developed that can handle it.

The expected returns are negative without being perfect at a valid counting system in profitable conditions.
 
md2324 said:
Is there a mathematical advantage if for every ( $100 ) that you win , that you increase your minimum Bet to say $20 and NO MATTER WHAT happens, you never decrease your minimum Bet back down to $10 ( for your minimum Bet ) ?
More...

No rationale to that.

Each play is "independent" of what has gone on before. Either the deck is (still) "in your favor" or "not".

Your question relates to the notion.... "if in a coin flip, heads has come up the last 5 times.... what are the odds of it coming up a 6th consecutive time". Answer... 50-50.

Which is not the same question as "starting now, what are the odds of a coin flip coming up heads 6-times in a row"?
 
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md2324,

If you wish to play an automatic reshuffle blackjack game just play small and for fun because you are playing an unbeatable game. At least learn basic strategy so that you can minimize the house's edge. Go to blackjackinfo.com, you can load basic strategy charts base on the game you are playing.
 
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