Blackjack - I'm hooked!

OK, I'm up to $88,000.

No, no, wait! That's $8,838.

$11,000 loss.

Hm... maybe I shouldn't take up BJ with real cash quite so fast. :D

That's it, I busted my *** for now. I'm taking a break....
 
Quote from 5yrtrader:

How do you know when the odds are in your favor without counting cards?
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well, for example: if you lose 10-times in a row, and the next 10-times the dealer wins in a row. Most likely you are due for a win.

that is what I meant by 'odds.'
 
Quote from sKaLpZ:

well, for example: if you lose 10-times in a row, and the next 10-times the dealer wins in a row. Most likely you are due for a win.

that is what I meant by 'odds.'
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You don't know much about probability.

The cards don't have memory. Each hand is 1:2 (simplifying for minimal house edge) of winning.

Anyone of the more knowledgable posters in this thread could have predicted you busting before you started.

If you want to gamble and make money. Either learn to count cards, or learn poker.

You could even try sports betting.
 
Quote from kjkent1:

Reluctantly, I will admit to having played blackjack professionally in my youth. This means that I played tens of thousands of hands against real dealers in real casinos using real money.

Unlike the stock market, blackjack is a completely closed system, which has a very large number of, but not infinite, possible outcomes (about 4.1 billion, if memory serves).

The mathematics of blackjack are extremely well understood and there have been a number of very good books written describing various systems which have been both empirically, as well as mathematically proven to provide an overall edge over the house of between .5% and 1.5%.

In order to beat the house, you must play like a machine. You cannot make mistakes and there is no "trading" involved. You simply keep track of the number of tens/aces vs. the number of non tens/aces and the more tens/aces that are in the deck as compared to the number that would ordinarily be present in a standard deck, increases your edge against the house, and visa versa.

When the count is "high", you bet more, when it is "low" you bet less. Over time, as long as you don't make many mistakes in counting, you will win -- the outcome is completely predicable in advance and it is inevitable.

The difficulty is that casino security will watch you play, and if you are winning, by placing higher and lower bets depending upon deck composition, you will be annoyed, harassed and eventually barred from playing.

Years ago, it was relatively easy to get a reasonable game. Today, it is possible, however, much more difficult. The casinos have dumbed down most customers and made the rules much less favorable. In the few places where the odds are still favorable, the casino watches for counters very carefully, making counting for any serious money even more difficult.

What you have described above re your winnings is, quite frankly, is impossible in real play. No one can win the amount of money that you are describing, unless they have unlimited capital and the house permits them to vary their bets at absurdly high ratios, which the house won't do, because the house enjoys winning much more than it does losing.

The only things in my opinion that are similar between trading and blackjack are:

1. money management
2. very large standard deviation and variance from expected value (i.e., mean average return), and
3. the house wants you to lose

There is no way to intimidate the house in blackjack, and no way to influence the cards by playing style. All of the working systems are based on absolutely mechanical play depending upon the cards in view and the composition of the deck, at any given instant. For every circumstance in blackjack, there is but one correct play, depending upon the count.

This is not the same as trading, although it may seem like it.

In summary, if you think that you can somehow "trade" with the house in blackjack and win, you will get slaughtered. And, if you doubt this theory, then I will be happy to bet you $100,000.00 that I can methodically play system blackjack against you, under controlled conditions, starting with the same bankroll, and at the end of 100,000 hands, I will have more money than you will.

Of course, playing 100,000 live hands of blackjack will require about 1,200 hours under the best conditions, so we're looking at pretty much full time work for the next six months, unless you want to resort to a simulator, which would produce a final tally in about 30 seconds.

Anyway, don't be a sucker. If anyone could do what you are asserting, all of the casinos would be bankrupt.
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how depressing.

yeah but... casinos aren't broke because plenty of people lose at 21.

even though I am down $11,000 right now, it is just a temporary setback.

I'll figure out what I did wrong and come back TWICE as strong! :D

you'll see.

I won't stop until I turn my $1,000 account into $100,000.

because I'm a winner. :D

(look at it this way... how many successful global currency traders do you know who play BJ?) :cool:
 
Quote from blogtrader:

its totally impossible to beat the table without counting cards, you are just experiencing the huge variance that game has
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perhaps.

but I do think I am actually exercising some control.

and if you combine control with money management then you can gain more money than you lose.

the house cannot control what you bet per hand, only what the min and max is.

and since the house never bets it has no control whatsoever in that area over itself. It can only win or lose what YOU bet.

we got to look at what the strength(s) of the house really is.

is not their precious "17" some kind of a specific number?

they either hit a soft 17 or don't.

and they cannot hit any number higher and they MUST hit anything lower.

surely that means something....

and if that stronghold is a key, then figuring out how to exploit it is just a matter of time and thought.

remember, 21 is not a perfect numerical game guaranteed against the player(s) (to lose).
 
Quote from gotmessner:

Buying multiple lottery tickets does infact increase your chances of winning (as long as they have different numbers on them).

The thing is though, the odds of winning are SO SHIT that you're better off just putting your weekly lottery money in a cash account earning 5 or so percent a year. Even better put it in a fund or some stocks.

I always lecture relatives when they enter lotteries.
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well, I play the lottery (super lotto and mega millions <-- the multi-state lottery) because I think the odds are good.

all you have to do is hook up ONCE. and the payoff can be in the hundreds of millions.

therefore it is worth it to lose some money trying.
 
Quote from sKaLpZ:
remember, 21 is not a perfect numerical game guaranteed against the player(s) (to lose). [/B]
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THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT IT IS!

As long as you don't count cards, the house edge will eat away your bankroll.

By all means, you're no winner.
 
Quote from gotmessner:

THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT IT IS!

As long as you don't count cards, the house edge will eat away your bankroll.

By all means, you're no winner.
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yeah but, then how did I get up over $20,000 from starting with $1,000?

I see this as very similar to trading, forex and drawdowns.

right now I was in the hole $11,000 because I was in a drawdown.

so what?
 
Okay I'll give you a mission.

For the next ten days. Start an online casino account with $1000, and attempt to turn it into $10,000 each day.

You'll understand how blackjack works at the end.
 
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