Blackbox ETF Trading System

I

im412b

I have been on a 60 day trial to a weekly ETF trading system in which the hypothetical results seem a bit unbelievable. I have been able to at least verify the published performance of the signals for the past 26 weeks up until about 4 or 5 weeks ago. Since then his numbers do not match what I calculate and I wanted others to look into this. I have written several times indicating his numbers are in error but do not get a response. He just opened up the site for the next couple days so anyone can look at the results - http://tsppremium.com/action-status-report.php
Trades begin with the closing price on the first trading day after the signal (usually a Monday) and are closed out the following week unless the signal is a hold.

The weekly performance up until 1/8/16 is spot on. Since that time it seems he is making numbers up. He reports a 6% gain trading RWM for the week following the signal of 2/26/16 which is ludicrous. RWM went down for 4 out of 5 weeks that his system was recommending the trade but yet he shows positive performance for 3 of those weeks.
 
Why pay someone with sketchy credentials for an ETF rotation strategy when you can make your own? Just google "ETF rotation strategies"

Here's one I used as a starting point. The author wrote several other very well thought-out articles on variations of this theme.

At Quantopian there are several ETF rotation strategies as well. Even better you can set up autotrading through them on Interactive Brokers.
 
I agree, the 1/29 entry only works if it held overlapping the next entry. The 2/5 entry can't have made his stated returns. It could be a transcription error - never attribute to malice what could just be clumsiness. But then, you don't really want to trade a black box with a klutz relaying the signals either.

Also agree with stevegee58 - there are plenty of published decent ETF strategies out there. Take one and run with it. If some day you find a white box ETF system with better results you can always "upgrade" and you're probably better off than using this service.

You could also just wait out a bit. Almost all of the ETFs I follow are below the 200 day moving average and I am waiting for them to enter an uptrend before I trade any of them. Gold is the notable exception.
 
oly said:
You could also just wait out a bit. Almost all of the ETFs I follow are below the 200 day moving average and I am waiting for them to enter an uptrend before I trade any of them. Gold is the notable exception.
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My rotation includes EDV which is currently above the 50/200:cool:
 
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