Dead cat bounce today? Futures already pointing down for tomorrow. See nikkei down as well....maybe they didn't get the "bulls" good news today.
Black Week (Mar 5 - 9)
- Thread starter mg_mg
- Start date
interesting how aussie and hang seng markets are holding up well, but the japanese are selling off all of our buying. I notice typically the japanese like to do their own buying and selling, thank you very much.
Curious if they recover in the 2nd session.
The yen is strengthening again.
If the yen rises to 110 to the USD, we will have a drop in the global equity markets that will rival that black day in 1987.
In fact, anything under 113ish will begin a devastating sell off.
That's not opinion, it's fact. It will have the exact same impact as a massive margin call on trillions of borrowed dollars by the Japanese Central Bank.
In the process of repatriating those dollars back to Japan, many, many hedge funds, mutual funds and other institutions will have to quickly liquidate large positions in equities and commodities. They will feel an urgency with each uptick of the strengthening yen, which will cost them huge amounts of losses.
If you think it can't happen, you ignore history at your own peril.
"They won't let it happen?" Tell that to the Japanese who are finally seeing inflation at home again, after 15 years.
If the yen rises to 110 to the USD, we will have a drop in the global equity markets that will rival that black day in 1987.
In fact, anything under 113ish will begin a devastating sell off.
That's not opinion, it's fact. It will have the exact same impact as a massive margin call on trillions of borrowed dollars by the Japanese Central Bank.
In the process of repatriating those dollars back to Japan, many, many hedge funds, mutual funds and other institutions will have to quickly liquidate large positions in equities and commodities. They will feel an urgency with each uptick of the strengthening yen, which will cost them huge amounts of losses.
If you think it can't happen, you ignore history at your own peril.
"They won't let it happen?" Tell that to the Japanese who are finally seeing inflation at home again, after 15 years.
this is repatriatian month. I'll be more worried if I see continued unwinding in the European session ... this past morning was the first time that unwinding was absent.
don't get too carried away with the doom and gloom. buyers and short covering were strong today. dead cat bounce? maybe. pop media would have you believe we need a 2nd test of lows, or even a deeper probe.
no one knows, though. And what if this wasn't the correction everyone was waiting for? what if we took off to dow 13k in 2 weeks and had the 'real correction' in a few months when "fill in the blank devastating economic scenario" occurs. One thing absent from this correction versus last May's is TRUE CONSENSUS FEAR of recession. Excluding a few losing traders on ET who salivate the chance to short successfully to 'show the world' how great they are at something some consider difficult, I'm not seeing true fear in the markets. Everyone is waiting to buy. Thats not a bear market. Thats a pause in buying. Talking heads are already 'fully invested' today, whereas 2 days ago they said 'wait for further selling'.
No one knows. Yesterday's weak finish was theoretically a signal for the bears to drive Asian markets down even more; Spectre was wrong on that.
TA is only as right as the crowd wants to believe. Does the crowd believe in 1350 ? or some moving average channel adherance moreso ?
[rhetorical questions]
yesterdays lack of follow through in asian session, was not seen by anyone, it was break in psychology. The asian rally was surprising none the less, but MF espouses in his trading the best trade is the one where you can identify speculators caught and need to exit.
So US weakness implied Asian weakness, and buying during Asian session the US players were caught and had to exit at higher prices today. The positive finish today is not carrying over into Asian session today.
There seems to be a effort being made to break the chain of doom gloom psychology. Now Asia is weak and US will open to Asian weakness. The end of the day position traders will get screwed tommorrow on US open. So US players will be 'caught' again.
There are implications for everything that happens whether it be related to trading or something else. You can only trade based on past history and probabilities. To see a break in implications, means someone is making a active effort to break it. Or there are things that the models arent accounting for.
So US weakness implied Asian weakness, and buying during Asian session the US players were caught and had to exit at higher prices today. The positive finish today is not carrying over into Asian session today.
There seems to be a effort being made to break the chain of doom gloom psychology. Now Asia is weak and US will open to Asian weakness. The end of the day position traders will get screwed tommorrow on US open. So US players will be 'caught' again.
There are implications for everything that happens whether it be related to trading or something else. You can only trade based on past history and probabilities. To see a break in implications, means someone is making a active effort to break it. Or there are things that the models arent accounting for.
Quite true.
I am almost sold out on all my (recently purchased) futures and stock longs.
Why do "They" always think dipbuyers have to hold forever?
Good luck to all!
Quote from Wayne Gibbous:
Quite true.
I am almost sold out on all my (recently purchased) futures and stock longs.
Why do "They" always think dipbuyers have to hold forever?
Good luck to all!
Yup, everything is about timing.
You could bought some dip on 2/27 and suffer. Or bought some dip on THU or SUN night and get your cash pocketed in a few hours.
There is no one only truth in this game.
Was today's rally a sucker rally? Me thinks so.
Check the chart for the Dow out. The Fib50 is providing some decent resistance as the dip buyers jump in. However, the volume makes the rally a suspect.
What do you think?
Check the chart for the Dow out. The Fib50 is providing some decent resistance as the dip buyers jump in. However, the volume makes the rally a suspect.
What do you think?
Guess we'll see how things pan out over the next few days...
I'm short the Canadian TSX index right now, didn't want to take on any forex risk if markets go a bit wonky...a double inverse ETF was recently launched in Canada, few months after the double inverse ETFs were launched for US indexes.
I'm short the Canadian TSX index right now, didn't want to take on any forex risk if markets go a bit wonky...a double inverse ETF was recently launched in Canada, few months after the double inverse ETFs were launched for US indexes.