Black Tuesday (1st May, 2007)

[Bogan7]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

depends on the price

if the dow is at 100,000 a 800 point drop woudnt be too uncommom

A better question would be what is the probability of a 6% drop? The probability is once every 10-15 years using past data I suppose

So a lot higher than 50:1 although I do think this month will see a correction from last month.

 

[IV_Trader]

Quote from atticus:

I'll give you 50:1 on any amount up to $1mm. Game?

I would take this bet , but the payout a bit too low. I'm usually trading 200:1 odds.

 

[99atlantic]

Quote from DeepFried:

The day when no one on ET predicts a crash the next day is the day I start worrying. I swear, every single frickin' day some one is predicting apocalypse within hours. Is this guy Blue Streak under a different name?

5/1/07 - DOW up 1,234.56 points. Largest point/percentage gain ever

 

[thegazelle]

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/searchPageBuilder.jsp?z=1177977522718&grpID=4409#

-75 offered @ $1.5 ($10 scale) . Tomorrow AM you should see some beef in the ask size. Of course by that time, I'm sure the stock exchanges will have melted...

 

[polpolik]

Quote from palenimbus:


You heard it here first.

And please let it be your last.... at least until your next alias.

 

[triggertrader]

Quote from 99atlantic:

5/1/07 - DOW up 1,234.56 points. Largest point/percentage gain ever

lol...good comeback.

 

[BudFoxx]

First trading day in May Dow up solidly 7 of last 9

 

[kiwi_trader]

Quote from palenimbus:

800+ point fall in the Dow.

You heard it here first.

Anything can happen but this seems to me to be highly unlikely. Look at the historical crashes (29, 87 come to mind) and the big down days come after multi-day lower highs. I think this LH LL situation creates an environment where over the course of the day everyone who's got an eye on the market picks up on the failure - so you get a cascade of joiners and capitulators.

Even the late feb event was preceded by a day which broke the prior days highs presumably gaining some longs to fail the next day.

On the other hand I could be wrong: when was a really big move on the dow not part of a Lower High situation?

 

[pumpanddumper]

Don't jinx a possible starting bear trend! God damn it! Now the DOW is guaranteed to go higher or break new highs. God an 800 point drop would kick ass. I called a top at 12,500 and am stuck with a shitload of DXD. I suck at picking tops!!!!!!!

Dude, I will be happy with it under 13k again and hopefully never see that number again.

Man, I blame bluestreak...lol

Btw, buying the DXD's is seriously not a bad move at these levels...QID for that matter too to hedge. But I'm just a bear!

 

[Spectra]

im ready!