Black swan risk rises to highest level ever, now that is a telling sign!!

S2007S said:
The longs have gotten away with these bounces for the last 6 years, mostly the last few times though the market has fallen that hard in a day it has rallied right back....again no one on August 24th saw that drop coming and no one saw the 1000 point rally in less than week coming either last week...so when you see the dow off another 1000 points everyone thinks, well the last few times it has dropped this fast it has rallied every single time....maybe the next time it drops that hard it wont rally back as quick, maybe it will take 6 months or a year instead of say a 5-6 weeks.....
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Perhaps, but the thing the longs always have in their favor is that when VIX is up over 30, the market starts zig-zagging, gapping up 20-30 ES points, etc...they get multiple mulligan's and if they are smart, they take them...OTOH, when you get stuck short in these markets, the VIX drops into the teens and the ranges contract and it becomes like water torture...
 
Visaria said:
if everyone has bought protection, it ain't gonna happen.
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Did you buy some? Nope. Did everyone buy out of money puts ? Of course not.
So it will happen.
Some smarts players patiently wait for the crash and they don't want that everyone knows it.
Same story with subprimes.

CM
 
der_kommissar said:
Perhaps, but the thing the longs always have in their favor is that when VIX is up over 30, the market starts zig-zagging, gapping up 20-30 ES points, etc...they get multiple mulligan's and if they are smart, they take them...OTOH, when you get stuck short in these markets, the VIX drops into the teens and the ranges contract and it becomes like water torture...
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I couldn't have said it better myself...you are a 1000% right, when the VIX gets to 25+ 30, 35+ 45+ 50++++ its a givien that A 10000000% of the time it's going to come straight back down and that if you get long stocks you are going to make money....the VIX might stay above 30 for a week or 2 if you are very lucky...but damn when the VIX is falling and under 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11 its like a never ending drop that takes months or years to complete in some cases. As you can see just as the VIX has gotten under 20 and recently 17 the markets have just gone from zig zagging to complete blahhhhh....I still predict a skyrocketing VIX to 50+
 
S2007S said:
I couldn't have said it better myself...you are a 1000% right, when the VIX gets to 25+ 30, 35+ 45+ 50++++ its a givien that A 10000000% of the time it's going to come straight back down and that if you get long stocks you are going to make money....the VIX might stay above 30 for a week or 2 if you are very lucky...but damn when the VIX is falling and under 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11 its like a never ending drop that takes months or years to complete in some cases. As you can see just as the VIX has gotten under 20 and recently 17 the markets have just gone from zig zagging to complete blahhhhh....I still predict a skyrocketing VIX to 50+
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like most forecasters you do nor provide an end date. therefore you are on well on your way to becoming a market pundit. with your writing skills, you might be able to start a very profitable investment newsletter. you might receive an income larger than trading income.
 
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Alright folks, here is my speculation on the next black swan. A dirty bomb goes off in Damascus, Syria, wiping it off the face of the earth.
 
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