We just had a 130 point rally with almost no pullbacks, and now a potential military conflict has started, we are at the most geopolitically risky point since 9/11 and the Iraq invasion a decade ago. If the market doesn't pull back at least 1/3 of that move in the next 2-3 days on this news, then it would be a crazily strong divergence. There are also plenty of further risks if the conflict escalates. Even if a deal is done, I doubt it will be done in the next 1-2 days - and markets usually sell off in the face of uncertainty. So, IMO this is a good place for a short, and there is a nice close stop near the old all-time highs to limit the risk.