Black Swan/Monday - Futures Crashing

To be clear I do NOT think this is the case or that it will happen but think about this for a while.

you want to buy LEH (pick the bank of your choise here) but Paulson says no to govt money.

How can you find financing to cover possible losses??

You hold off on coming to an agreement and start buying YM / ES contracts Then SPI and HSI contracts (Tokyo, Singaopore etc.. also)as they are down big (ES is down about 36 points and the dow is down about 290 as of this post)

You spend five or six hours buying so that you don't show your hand.

Next you announce the deal for LEH and the markets Jump on the news and you make a pile of money.

Not sure how much money can be made overall in the world markets but if the ES is down 35-40 points and the deal sends it to positive 15-20 points along with the rest of the world indexes in similar fashion you could make a lot of money.

If the deal with the feds was that they would not provide money but would turn a blind eye so that all could save face you may have something interesting.

Nothing more than just some baseless Sunday night thoughts as I watch the markets and the news.
 
Quote from staffpro:

this is it, all the people about to retire will take a look at their 401k's only to find out they have to go back to work LMAO
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The irony of it all is those same folks are the ones who elected bush twice, and are clamoring for McCain/Palin.

I do not feel sorry at all for them and I short guilt free.
 
Quote from KINGOFSHORTS:

The irony of it all is those same folks are the ones who elected bush twice, and are clamoring for McCain/Palin.

I do not feel sorry at all for them and I short guilt free.
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ye my thoughts exactly, i'm 18 this year i can finally vote and mccain sure as hell isn't getting my vote
 
Quote from 1Reason:

To be clear I do NOT think this is the case or that it will happen but think about this for a while.

you want to buy LEH (pick the bank of your choise here) but Paulson says no to govt money.

How can you find financing to cover possible losses??

You hold off on coming to an agreement and start buying YM / ES contracts Then SPI and HSI contracts (Tokyo, Singaopore etc.. also)as they are down big (ES is down about 36 points and the dow is down about 290 as of this post)

You spend five or six hours buying so that you don't show your hand.

Next you announce the deal for LEH and the markets Jump on the news and you make a pile of money.

Not sure how much money can be made overall in the world markets but if the ES is down 35-40 points and the deal sends it to positive 15-20 points along with the rest of the world indexes in similar fashion you could make a lot of money.

If the deal with the feds was that they would not provide money but would turn a blind eye so that all could save face you may have something interesting.

Nothing more than just some baseless Sunday night thoughts as I watch the markets and the news.
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interesting post
 
Quote from staffpro:

ye my thoughts exactly, i'm 18 this year i can finally vote and mccain sure as hell isn't getting my vote
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Unfortunately, your problems are MUCH bigger than which A-Hole gets your vote.
 
Quote from 1Reason:

To be clear I do NOT think this is the case or that it will happen but think about this for a while.

you want to buy LEH (pick the bank of your choise here) but Paulson says no to govt money.

How can you find financing to cover possible losses??

You hold off on coming to an agreement and start buying YM / ES contracts Then SPI and HSI contracts (Tokyo, Singaopore etc.. also)as they are down big (ES is down about 36 points and the dow is down about 290 as of this post)

You spend five or six hours buying so that you don't show your hand.

Next you announce the deal for LEH and the markets Jump on the news and you make a pile of money.

Not sure how much money can be made overall in the world markets but if the ES is down 35-40 points and the deal sends it to positive 15-20 points along with the rest of the world indexes in similar fashion you could make a lot of money.

If the deal with the feds was that they would not provide money but would turn a blind eye so that all could save face you may have something interesting.

Nothing more than just some baseless Sunday night thoughts as I watch the markets and the news.
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Makes sense to me. I thought perhaps GS was going to do precisely that last week.
 
Quote from staffpro:

ye my thoughts exactly, i'm 18 this year i can finally vote and mccain sure as hell isn't getting my vote
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Smart. If you are young it would be smart to bring in new blood to the whitehouse, new ideas.

This is your country, vote accordingly cause the old farts could give a rats ass what happens to your generation, obviously.


Keep shorting, selling covered calls on your equities and buying puts in the meantime. Being a passive investor is not a way to make a good living or building a nice fat nestegg.
 
It looks like Merrill is going to get bought by bank of america for $26 a share which will kill shorts in that stock and help the broader market. The question will be how much are the banks going to be down, if it's more than 10% there could be some commodity selling on liquidation fears bringing down the whole market, crude is already down so it could be ugly for the commodity stocks. Some Lehman trades are being liquidated tonight and may not have the disastrous implications some are saying, and the government is pumping another 50 billion into the market to save dying corporations so the market will be so nuts on monday the play is probably to take the other side of whichever way it goes first
 
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