Black Swan Event vs ET Thread/Post Count

[OTM-Options]

I'm working on a theory that a market Black Swan Event can be defined by a 50% increase in the ET Thread/Post count during the event:

If Mondays ET activity (new threads and posts) was 50% higher than the average daily activity during the last week then we indeed went through a Black Swan Event.

I'm wondering if Baron could confirm Mondays (August 24) ET activity - was there a 50% increase? Thanks

 

[Baron]

Here you go:

 

[JTrades]

Buy after the retrace to the top of the range ~ 600, stop below the Saturday low.

 

[der_kommissar]

Seriously you could model so many of these things (site usage, visits, news ratings, etc) on VIX or something similar...

 

[der_kommissar]

Let's see if there is a 30% drop in posts today...From what I can tell it's more than that...Very little activity compared to yesterday.

 

[jimmiebarton]

Buy after the retrace to the top of the range ~ 600, stop below the Saturday low.

LOL

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Here you go:

View attachment 156168

Need to get some Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD and stop out levels on this chart.

 

[OTM-Options]

OK ..... Thanks Baron for posting the chart. ET activity did increase by 50%+ on Monday, with normal activity the preceding 6 days.


IMO ...... Market activity on Monday August 24, 2015 was indeed a Black Swan Event, otherwise there would have been a gradual increase in ET activity leading up to the big event.

 

[lawrence-lugar]

Seriously you could model so many of these things (site usage, visits, news ratings, etc) on VIX or something similar...

I agree.

If you look hard enough...you can find patterns, or coincidences, across basically anything in life.
...I find it kind of annoying that there's a term, or a new term being coined, to describe each one.

 

[der_kommissar]

I'd be curious to see how the stats look since Monday...today has been very quiet on here.