Black Swan -- a thought experiment

Quote from panzerman:



It is still debated on ET as to what kind of return he earned for investors in his fund, using this strategy.
More...



Are those numbers not yet in the public domain ?
 
lol this is not a "black swan". this is a pretty widely known and somewhat expected event. a "black swan" would be iran retaliating with nukes that no one knew they had and destroying israel. i don't think anyone would be expecting that.

another good black swan would be jp morgan going under if there are a wave of major bankruptcies (LEH, MER, C, so on) due to them being the biggest writer in the credit swap market. they pretty much have the implicit backing of the fed after their bsc deal but this would be much much bigger than the fed could handle.
 
Quote from jem:



I think I would be short index futures, long ag, long oil and long bomb makers, long international funeral homes and casket makers and then right before the 2nd coming flatten and give everything I had to charity... and if I were really cheeky I would also give some to the Church even though they would not need it much longer.
More...

Brilliant!!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top