Black October
- Thread starter Trendytrader
- Start date
Quote from abxs:
(1) Stock Market Crash of 1929 - The Dow falls a total of 23% for October 28 and 29;
(2) October 13 and 16, 1989 - The Dow plunges 190.50 points, or 6.9% on October 13
(3) Black Monday, October 19, 1987 and October 20 - The Dow suffers the biggest percentage loss in recorded stock market history on October 19 and initially continues its plunge on the 20th.
(4) October 27, 1997 mini-crash ("Asian flu")
October is a treacherous month, wouldn't you say?
Ummm...
4 Octobers out of 80...
That's not exactly what I would call a high percentage..
The real stat is that October, historically, has been spotty...lots of ups AND downs...there is no real seasonal trend..
November and December, historically, are very strong for equities...
From 1960, DOW index in October, 61.7% of the same month October is up. The average is up 0.77%, the median is 1.0%, the worst -23.22% in 1987 and the best 10.65% in year 1982.
1987 10 -23.2159
1978 10 -8.4740
1979 10 -7.1570
1997 10 -6.3331
1971 10 -5.4318
1967 10 -5.0633
1977 10 -3.3951
1976 10 -2.5510
1989 10 -1.7729
1992 10 -1.3871
2005 10 -1.2171
1980 10 -0.8505
1995 10 -0.7016
1970 10 -0.6665
1983 10 -0.6431
2004 10 -0.5238
1990 10 -0.4139
1964 10 -0.2616
1960 10 0.0379
1984 10 0.0555
1972 10 0.2360
1981 10 0.3024
1961 10 0.3865
1973 10 1.0010
1994 10 1.6895
1988 10 1.6915
1991 10 1.7346
1968 10 1.7739
1962 10 1.8636
1996 10 2.5026
2001 10 2.5722
2000 10 3.0065
1963 10 3.0623
1965 10 3.2496
1985 10 3.4381
2006 10 3.4391
1993 10 3.5293
1999 10 3.8010
1966 10 4.2430
1969 10 5.2762
1975 10 5.3106
2003 10 5.6718
1986 10 6.2306
1974 10 9.4839
1998 10 9.5565
2002 10 10.6047
1982 10 10.6522
For Nasdaq, since 1985, 59.09% of the months of October is up. The average is up 0.95%. The worst is -27.23 the Oct in 1987. The best is 13.45%.
1987 10 -27.2339
2000 10 -8.2550
1997 10 -5.4624
1990 10 -4.2671
1989 10 -3.6583
2005 10 -1.4588
1988 10 -1.3412
1995 10 -0.7168
1996 10 -0.4409
1994 10 1.7271
1993 10 2.1605
1986 10 2.8799
1991 10 3.0557
1992 10 3.7547
2004 10 4.1200
1985 10 4.3525
1998 10 4.5784
2006 10 4.7945
1999 10 8.0210
2003 10 8.1295
2001 10 12.7702
2002 10 13.4541
It's because october has been some of the more influential drops. That's why it's thought of this way.
I've heard it referred to as the "bear killer", because bears allegedly end in October.
October '87's murderous plunge ended exactly one week later, because at that time trades used to settle in 5 instead of the present 3 days. Came settlement day, the market made what proved to be its final bottom, at a point slightly higher than the price it hit on crash day.
Basically, they shot the traders who were too far gone to save, buried the bodies, and proceeded to ramp it up from there, never looking back.
October '87's murderous plunge ended exactly one week later, because at that time trades used to settle in 5 instead of the present 3 days. Came settlement day, the market made what proved to be its final bottom, at a point slightly higher than the price it hit on crash day.
Basically, they shot the traders who were too far gone to save, buried the bodies, and proceeded to ramp it up from there, never looking back.