Black Monday

Status
Not open for further replies.
Mandelbrot is proud of this fat-tail event.

Although he was unable to forecast price movement, volatility on the otherhand is self-fulfilling.

So bring extra shotgun shells 'cause on this trip there is a good chance you're gonna limit out quick and you can give the "extra" birds to your friends and family to fill the freezer.

Word to the wise. Make sure none of your hunting buddies is named Dick.
 
gosh ... the bulls must love this "black monday" talk

for the open in asia ... US stock index futures are indicated higher

whether we end up monday up 5-10 handles or down the same number of handles ... gosh .. my tea leaves are not telling me

:p
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Bulls don't get it.

The psychological propensity is for people to avoid risk now. The last thing they want to live through is a 10% to 20% loss, when they can get a guaranteed 5.5% until this long anticipated correction is over.

It is now a self-fulfilling prophecy, and the die have been cast.

Psychology trumps all.
More...


true the risk to reward ratio has now gone to the bears, its just that this market is soo crazy anything is possible. Besides that I would pay very close attention to the Sensex, its entering a bear market below 12801, I have posted numerous articles about the Sensex in the past month, too bad they were ignored by the bulls.
 
got this off the other forum,

So where do 3%+ declines usually occur during bull and bear markets? We looked at all bull and bear markets going back to 1962 to find out. If a bear market has indeed started, the 3%+ decline just 5 days in, will be the earliest yet. As shown in the first table below, most come well into bear markets. If the bull market continues, past data shows that there are plenty more days to come before the end of the cycle.

In all instances of 3%+ declines, the averages show that the S&P 500 rises in the month and three months following. When the 3%+ declines come during bear markets, the average gain over the next month is 3.40% and 4.35% over the next three months. When the 3%+ declines come during bull markets, the average gain over the next month is 2.95% and 9.32% over the next three months.
 
If we do enter a bear market whats the big deal, these markets have been running strong for nearly 5 years. Nothing runs straight up forever. Corporate profits will eventually slow, the economy has to go through these sort of cycles.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top