Black Monday ??

Quote from T-REX:

patience. the crash will come.:D

in the meantime just sit on the sidelines.
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Patience?!?!? Fuck that.....I want my crash yesterday...just when you guys said it would come.....dont cha know I got shit to do?!??



:cool:
 
Still long, picked up a bit more on Monday on Globex pre-open, and I'll be exiting some if it rallies into Friday's highs, stop is at 1142 a bit below today's lows. I'm surprised how little panic there was on Monday. All the fear was worked out on Globex. Short-term that's bullish IMO, but medium-term it makes me think people are still a bit complacent.
 
Quote from LondonUSTrader:

Making predictions although a bit of harmless fun is a fool's game. If you make enough calls sooner or later you might get one right. But one call in isolation from one's trackrecord is meaningless.

Just trade the action. Forget about predicting where the market will go.
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Sometimes the price-action in isolation is deceptive. Friday and Monday Globex is a great example - very bearish action, but it should have been bought, not shorted. Someone trading the action would have been shorting the lows on Monday. The thing you are missing is sentiment. When price action is bearish, but sentiment is also very bearish, then usually this is a time to buy, not short. Or at least, go flat or buy calls until short-term momentum turns up. The time to short is where price action is bearish, but sentiment is neutral or, even better, bullish/in denial.
 
Quote from hank rollins:

totally untrue and inappropriate nonsense from a moderator no less. why a moderator would attempt to squelch the very thing that makes a message board work, i have no clue.

i have made very very few big calls over my 5 year historic posting record. i trade systematically and the posts are basically public notes to myself

good bye for now, ET.
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Even though Hank Rollins (great nickname btw!) was wrong on this call, I agree with him. Every trader ends up with egg on his face, usually at least once or twice a year. It's nothing to be ashamed of. I'd rather have someone who makes calls and gets some right, some wrong, than someone who makes no calls and snipes after the fact. I've made a few calls here on ET, some have worked very well, some have not worked, but the only way to judge them is by how much you lost if they were wrong vs how much they made if you were right. Hank will not lose his shirt on this call (especially with a 150 point stop on the Dow), he will just give back some open profits. But he has made decent calls on oil twice from the short side recently. I bet he made more on the 2 oil shorts than he even has given back in profits on this one so far.

A famous trader once said it is not how often you are right that matters, but how much you make when you are right, versus how much you lose when you are wrong. That is the real essence of trading.
 
Quote from Cutten:

Sometimes the price-action in isolation is deceptive. Friday and Monday Globex is a great example - very bearish action, but it should have been bought, not shorted. Someone trading the action would have been shorting the lows on Monday. The thing you are missing is sentiment. When price action is bearish, but sentiment is also very bearish, then usually this is a time to buy, not short. Or at least, go flat or buy calls until short-term momentum turns up. The time to short is where price action is bearish, but sentiment is neutral or, even better, bullish/in denial.
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Actually, I side with LondonUSTrader on this one. Further, you don't necessarily have to short the lows if you are "trading the action." The "action" can include volume and breadth which, together with price, can paint a different picture than what price alone would suggest. But I am intrigued by your comment on sentiment. How do you gauge sentiment, if I may ask?
 
Quote from Cutten:

Even though Hank Rollins (great nickname btw!) was wrong on this call, I agree with him. Every trader ends up with egg on his face, usually at least once or twice a year. It's nothing to be ashamed of. I'd rather have someone who makes calls and gets some right, some wrong, than someone who makes no calls and snipes after the fact. I've made a few calls here on ET, some have worked very well, some have not worked, but the only way to judge them is by how much you lost if they were wrong vs how much they made if you were right. Hank will not lose his shirt on this call (especially with a 150 point stop on the Dow), he will just give back some open profits. But he has made decent calls on oil twice from the short side recently. I bet he made more on the 2 oil shorts than he even has given back in profits on this one so far.

A famous trader once said it is not how often you are right that matters, but how much you make when you are right, versus how much you lose when you are wrong. That is the real essence of trading.
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thanks, cutten ! when ( if ) i get stopped out at 10179 its still close to 300 points profit on the trade. i am not concerned about how much profit give back, so long as i stick to my system it will continue to nail nice moves,

i agree with your other post, also. well said !

:)
 
Quote from EqtTrdr:

new pope rally is so free $$$
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This has Z-E-R-O to do with the pope. It has everything to do with all the bears on this board and elsewhere scurrying back to their caves with their tail between their legs.

Never...never does the market go down when so many are looking for it to do so. All the put buyers last Thursday and Friday insured a rally this week.

This was about as easy as it gets with the Put/Call ratio.... the TRIN.... the % of Bulls at a 14 year low.....VIX, VXO ...etc...etc...all screaming buy

This will rally will probably last all week and will probably intensify in velocity.


Dr. Z

The good thing is that we all live and learn....
 
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