Black Monday ??

Quote from LondonUSTrader:

Well, according to that article posted above "With Friday's losses, it was the first time the Dow lost 100 points three sessions in a row since late January 2003. "

I would actually call it pretty unusual when it hasn't happened in over 2 years. At least from an intraday perspective.
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Newspaper Articles are written from a non-insiders perspective. Traders don't usually write for newspaper publications.:p

Just kidding. Really though, from my own perspective If it has happened more than once then its not rare. It happened more than once in 2003. It happened in 2002. It happened in 2001 and its happening again now. So I guess its safe to say that it happens almost every year. not so random in my book. I'd venture to say that its a pattern that can be predetermined if not exploited if understood correctly before hand.

just my 1 1/2 cents worth.:)
 
Too all you guys that are trying to catch this falling axe ... I have one thing to say... are you nuts!

:eek:

Markets like this just don't stop and turn around on a dime!
 
Quote from T-REX:

Newspaper Articles are written from a non-insiders perspective. Traders don't usually write for newspaper publications.:p

Just kidding. Really though, from my own perspective If it has happened more than once then its not rare. It happened more than once in 2003. It happened in 2002. It happened in 2001 and its happening again now. So I guess its safe to say that it happens almost every year. not so random in my book. I'd venture to say that its a pattern that can be predetermined if not exploited if understood correctly before hand.

just my 1 1/2 cents worth.:)
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Of course, not uncommon from a longer time frame perspective.

However, in 2001 and 2002 we were in a Bear Market. Since this Bull market began it has been an unusual event.

That is what makes me think this could be the start of something dramatic rather than the end of a normal selloff. On the other hand, this could be near the bottom of this down cycle as there are a lot of bears in the market. Of course, next week we will all have more information.
 
Quote from LondonUSTrader:

This seems a pretty serious selloff, more serious than I can remember in a long long time (although I wasn't around in 89 or 87).

Question: when were the last 3 days in a row which were clear downtrend days and the Dow lost 100 points each day?

I can't remember 3 consecutive days like this in a long long time. Perhaps someone can tell us when this last happened.

It certainly seems pretty serious and very unusual.
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Ummmm, where were you just a few years ago??? This was a normal occurence in the 00-03 bear...

PEACE and good-trading...

YO PABST! Whats up bo!?!
 
Quote from LondonUSTrader:

Of course, not uncommon from a longer time frame perspective.

However, in 2001 and 2002 we were in a Bear Market. Since this Bull market began it has been an unusual event.

That is what makes me think this could be the start of something dramatic rather than the end of a normal selloff. On the other hand, this could be near the bottom of this down cycle as there are a lot of bears in the market. Of course, next week we will all have more information.
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Please forgive me. I have not been engaged in such intelligent discussion in quite some time.:D You raise some great points. However, I would like to point out that we ARE STILL IN A BEAR MARKET! The Bear Market has not ended. It won't be the end until the S&P 500 can close above 1245.75

You may wonder why I say S&P 500 @ 1245.75?
Well allow me to explain.

2 weeks prior to the attacks on 9/11 back when I was a broker I had advised my clients to load up on Put Options in both the S&P 500 & Dow Futures. Although I had no idea of what was coming on 9/11 I did see that the mkt was headed for a correction.

Well, the mkt has never recovered from that and now as you can see we have put in a Double Top when the S&P 500 tested that 1200 level but failed to hold it. That was the beginning of the end of this Bear rally.

Finally, IMHO, If and when Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae folds or defaults on its mortgage debts and the realestate bubble burst then you will see panic unlike anything ever seen in the history of this market.

Again you are correct. This is the begining of something big.

O.k. I'm done with my prognostications for the day.
 
Quote from T-REX:

Please forgive me. I have not been engaged in such intelligent discussion in quite some time.:D You raise some great points. However, I would like to point out that we ARE STILL IN A BEAR MARKET! The Bear Market has not ended. It won't be the end until the S&P 500 can close above 1245.75

You may wonder why I say S&P 500 @ 1245.75?
Well allow me to explain.

2 weeks prior to the attacks on 9/11 back when I was a broker I had advised my clients to load up on Put Options in both the S&P 500 & Dow Futures. Although I had no idea of what was coming on 9/11 I did see that the mkt was headed for a correction.

Well, the mkt has never recovered from that and now as you can see we have put in a Double Top when the S&P 500 tested that 1200 level but failed to hold it. That was the beginning of the end of this Bear rally.

Finally, IMHO, If and when Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae folds or defaults on its mortgage debts and the realestate bubble burst then you will see panic unlike anything ever seen in the history of this market.

Again you are correct. This is the begining of something big.

O.k. I'm done with my prognostications for the day.
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I agree with the Bear market analysis to an extent. I personally think that we have been in a cyclical Bull market (since mid 2003) within the context of a secular Bear Market. A quite normal countertrend move to the main trend.

I think this selling is more serious than what we have seen in a long time. I can't remember selling pressure this severe since 2003. That is one thing that makes me feel this could be a watershed for this market. Although, need more data to confirm and the next few weeks will be very interesting to say the least.

Quote from Virtuoso:

Ummmm, where were you just a few years ago??? This was a normal occurence in the 00-03 bear...

PEACE and good-trading...

YO PABST! Whats up bo!?!
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I was here to an extent. I was working as a Stockbroker then and not a full-time trader. I have only been trading ES futures full-time since August 2003.
 
Quote from LondonUSTrader:





I was here to an extent. I was working as a Stockbroker then and not a full-time trader. I have only been trading ES futures full-time since August 2003.
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Oh, a fellow Broker. Nice to meet you.
Ofcourse I too have long since left the profession to trade on my own with my own money.
 
Quote from T-REX:

Oh, a fellow Broker. Nice to meet you.
Ofcourse I too have long since left the profession to trade on my own with my own money.
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Likewise.

I always found it amusing that the most successful brokers knew the least about the markets, but were just damn good salesmen.
 
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