Black Monday ??

Cutten · Apr 15, 2005

Quote from hank rollins:

i am literally experiencing flashbacks to days before the major declines. its really uncanny.

Ok, so remember the following "Market Wizards" dictum - when lots of traders are expecting something, and it doesn't happen, then go the other way. Maybe a straddle is a better way to make this play - if it crashes, you will bank; if it doesn't crash, then you want to be long.

chiguy · Apr 15, 2005

in 87 market bounced back around 250 points the next day....

in 89 everybody remembered how awful 87 was and the fear was much more intense...

ssternlight · Apr 15, 2005

We're coming back nicely today as it is. Unless we get a lot of selling into the close I could argue that today might be a near term bottom. .. not that I am nibbling to test that out mind.

Free Thinker · Apr 15, 2005

if i was short i believe i would be covering about now. 1.20 pm ct friday.

gnom · Apr 15, 2005

Quote from chiguy:

in 87 market bounced back around 250 points the next day....

in 89 everybody remembered how awful 87 was and the fear was much more intense...

was it a bottom for the market then? I wasn't trading in 80s

Samson77 · Apr 15, 2005

Hank

I'm in agreement with you on this one

I don't think it's a crash but certainly a signifigant sell off imo.

Samson77 · Apr 15, 2005

Quote from hank rollins:

trends are obvious in hind sight.

You might want to try a new pair of glasses.

killATwill · Apr 15, 2005

Samson, can you list your reasons. Curious to know your opinion as a profesional.

EqtTrdr · Apr 15, 2005

market hasn't gapped down hard on a Monday in a long long time imo

seems like every Sunday futures open/Monday morning, we get a "nothing bad happened" over the weekend futures pop ot some degree...

Samson77 · Apr 15, 2005

Quote from killATwill:

Samson, can you list your reasons. Curious to know your opinion as a profesional.

Technically the list is huge ... to name a few of the most important.

Break of the 200 ema
Break of two major trendlines
Expanding volatility
Short term ema's acting as resistance
Short price patterns everywhere (candle and formation)

fundamentally the list is not as clear but still makes senses!

CNBC calling a bottom ... LOL
Earnings are dismal and guidance is poor
Oil is still way to expensive (delayed effect)
Housing starts and jobs stink

and my number one fundamental reason is U.S. Consumer debt is way too high and we have rising rates this will be disastrous sooner or later if not contained

I have other reasons too but I do not wish to share them in an open forum (no offence).

btw, I'm not saying that it is going to happen I'm just saying it is highly possible in this enviroment I would take it one day at a time.