Black Monday
- Thread starter bond_trad3r
- Start date
Quote from failed_trad3r:
I refuse to believe we are going down. This is a buyers market.
Failed Trad3r has spoken, ladies and gentlemen.
Behold. I hope you realize the significance of this perma-bear who is now long.......
people arent expecting a crash with QE3, presidential election. yadda yadda. honestly im not expecting a crash either. i just went cash because i dont really know what to expect and would rather be on the sidelines for a bit and see what happens. i dont mind missing the first 2-3% move in either direction to feel more comfortable about the position i am taking.
Agree with MKTrader.
Although QE3 by itself is positive for equities, the main thing that some observers forget is that Bernanke has stated that he will be even more loose with monetary policy if in his view conditions warrant such a move.
This serves to keep the strike price of the Bernanke put very close to recent multi-year highs, and why a "crash" (however you define it) is extremely unlikely.
Even if a "crash" occurred on Monday, the next Fed meeting starts on Tuesday and ends on Wednesday, at which Bernanke would just print more money, and/or use it to buy even lower quality stuff, like corporate bonds or even outright purchases of equities.
I can imagine the Fed statements in a few years, after QE3/infinite stops working: "We plan to aggressively purchase a basket of stocks from the Dow and S&P 500. We might even by some small-caps, housing stocks and junkie techs just to keep the bears guessing. We plan to do this until at least 2022."
I just wish 87's crash happen again, I never see this kind of spectaular event before.
I saw 2010 5/6 1000points drop, I made 18k on NQ in less than half hour.
I read through Martin Swartz's PIT BULL. he described it. He bought overweekend S&P 500, in black monday, he sold his holding with loss on the bounce high, he felt good about this trade. then he dscribed another trade, that is in election day, he lost big in averaging down a strong surge.
Election SURGE
Black Monday CRash
history may repeat itself. I am anticipating SURGE after election. Black Monday, that is awesome. I get to watch those longs how to lose, pee in their pants
I saw 2010 5/6 1000points drop, I made 18k on NQ in less than half hour.
I read through Martin Swartz's PIT BULL. he described it. He bought overweekend S&P 500, in black monday, he sold his holding with loss on the bounce high, he felt good about this trade. then he dscribed another trade, that is in election day, he lost big in averaging down a strong surge.
Election SURGE
Black Monday CRash
history may repeat itself. I am anticipating SURGE after election. Black Monday, that is awesome. I get to watch those longs how to lose, pee in their pants
Events like that are huge opportunity if you prepare well.
anything can happen, but most often if too many people are anticipting the same thing, the opposite thing happens. that is God's way to show us WE must be humble.
when everone is talking about that, only few of us knows that the opposite will happen. that is why I play lonely hand.
we human brain is stupid. we like to generalize things. again, I see we greatly overestimate the probability of 1987's crash.
the market conditions not warrant this magnatitue of crash. of course, we need go out of our comfortable box. if we look outside of the box, we see:
1. software glitches, just like one months ago KCG (kcg installed new software), one hour glitches, lost $380M and put KCG in the brink of chapter 11.
2. some intented manipulation, since everyone are looking for this kind of event, a slight onsight of the event, will be magified into the start of this kind of event. how about a 100points in AAPL in pre-market (some one can do it with 100shares), then 200points in GOOG, then all those traders will view it as 87's crash happen agaiin, they will start to sell anything on the screen, ... until somehow someone noticed that is a manipulation, but it is too late! while the manipator pocketed huge money and went unnoticed. CROWD HERD MENATILITY
3. unexpected things happen, how about AAPL earning realse not as planned in the monday pre-market, a very dissapointed one, aapl cut half into 300ish, defintely S&P 500, NQ will drop at least 5 to 10%, then bad thing happens, a strong earthquake in some densely populated CA cities happen, and china thought that is a good chance to lauch a war against Japan they saw it is a good window time at 11;00am,....one after one, that will accelate the crash,....
zillions of things, I like this drama, real, raw,...
anything can happen, but most often if too many people are anticipting the same thing, the opposite thing happens. that is God's way to show us WE must be humble.
when everone is talking about that, only few of us knows that the opposite will happen. that is why I play lonely hand.
we human brain is stupid. we like to generalize things. again, I see we greatly overestimate the probability of 1987's crash.
the market conditions not warrant this magnatitue of crash. of course, we need go out of our comfortable box. if we look outside of the box, we see:
1. software glitches, just like one months ago KCG (kcg installed new software), one hour glitches, lost $380M and put KCG in the brink of chapter 11.
2. some intented manipulation, since everyone are looking for this kind of event, a slight onsight of the event, will be magified into the start of this kind of event. how about a 100points in AAPL in pre-market (some one can do it with 100shares), then 200points in GOOG, then all those traders will view it as 87's crash happen agaiin, they will start to sell anything on the screen, ... until somehow someone noticed that is a manipulation, but it is too late! while the manipator pocketed huge money and went unnoticed. CROWD HERD MENATILITY
3. unexpected things happen, how about AAPL earning realse not as planned in the monday pre-market, a very dissapointed one, aapl cut half into 300ish, defintely S&P 500, NQ will drop at least 5 to 10%, then bad thing happens, a strong earthquake in some densely populated CA cities happen, and china thought that is a good chance to lauch a war against Japan they saw it is a good window time at 11;00am,....one after one, that will accelate the crash,....
zillions of things, I like this drama, real, raw,...
When did ET or Mainstream media ever managed to predict a crash?
Did anybody predict the flash crash? What's this about BLACK MONDAY ALL OVER THE NEWS
Shock.
We are not crashing next week, put your rally caps on.
Did anybody predict the flash crash? What's this about BLACK MONDAY ALL OVER THE NEWS
Shock.
We are not crashing next week, put your rally caps on.
