black monday / panic monday

Quote from spindr0:

Black Monday ???

Are we expecting an eclipse?
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I looked at some news on Marketwatch and they were saying the home sales coming out on Monday were not supposed to be good since the stimulus program was no longer in effect or something (I don't know, I'm not really a fundamentalist). In any case, they said more earnings are coming out so it might be a mixed bag, who knows.

I'd rather not say why, but just for the hell of it, I'll say it. I have some ideas on technical analysis that suggests to me that this is the first time in a few months that we MAY have an indication of a start of a downturn. If it does happen, I don't know how fast it will bounce back.
 
Quote from clambill:

We haven't gone past the last relative low yet to say this is a downtrend. lol, do you like my "Paint" skills? [/B]
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me not suggesting anything at all by the fact that the dow has broken the strong support at 10280 as well as the trend line from March's low as well as from August. I just like to draw different colored lines and if i could still get a virus free copy of illustrator, would try to compete with clambill on artistic skills, most likely with me as the loser:(
still, there were 2 strong volume days in support of this move so look for a bigger volume spike or a tapering off of the volume and downward move for a possible reversal back to the upside. IF i were into predicting what the market will do from here on an interday level, which happily, i am more a 5-minuteman (to my wife's appreciation), i would say...its in New York and heading to sunny, warm Florida.
 
clambill,

All the technical analysis in the world means nothing when news hits. And news can be meaningless based on expectation (bad news can be good).

Just go with the flow :)
 
Well, I almost feel like an idiot for forgetting about simple things like trendlines and support lines.

Heehee, it reminds me of a list of technical indicators I should perhaps be looking into again. :)
 
Equities Funds/Institutions must have been worried on Friday......they built up a very large SHORT position hedge on Friday before they went on their sell program dump.........

http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/01/23/FulcrumTrader_CD

Sell program runs after SHORT position hedge was built in the "ES".............

http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/01/22/FT_NYSE_TICK

This is a rare order flow distribution event to see over 50,000 contracts accumulated SHORT just above recent lows (after a several day sell off run). I usually only see this happen a few times a year. Well, I did see this a lot in 2008.....LOL! :eek: That year was a bit different than most....:D
 
Quote from clambill:

Well, I almost feel like an idiot for forgetting about simple things like trendlines and support lines.

Heehee, it reminds me of a list of technical indicators I should perhaps be looking into again. :)
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Nono, brother clam, the crazy KISS rule is a fine one as too many indicators on the screen can be confusing (at least for me:)
Really, it may just be the next higher low retracement and a good time to enter. As i suggested, I am somewhere between OK and not OK at figuring out intraday price action but am too much of a yellow-bellied chicken to even try to figure out the probabilities on naked position trading and never hold such overnight. The market has a ways to go before that 9700 last HL, though a couple of more days like the last 2 would get us down to see how solid that support line is. From a Native American religion seminar I attended a few years back, it was divined that my totem is indeed the chicken so I know that fear and panic can be even stronger than the governator and as the last 2 days have had their fair share of both...We will see soon enough.

AMT, your images baffle me so would you be so kind as to explain how/if I can tell the 50k contract accumulation from the chart as the charthub site looks useful? Much thanks!!
 
Let me just take a guess as to this coming week's action. I'm not a day trader since I tend to hold for periods of months, but I do follow the markets fairly closely, so here is my wild guess based on past experience in this type of situation.

Market opens down big on Monday, then manages to close the day with a small gain.

Market closes on Friday (29th) within striking distance of highs.

Bettles
 
As price continued to rotate off the 1111's there had been an accumulated bid/ask differential of over 50,000 contracts. Each time price rotated back up to the 1111's more sellers continued to initiate trade at that area of price (while previously initiating sellers HELD previously initiated SHORT inventory from the 1111's area of price). If you track Cumulative Delta you can easily spot zones of accumulated inventory throughout the trade day (as a trader tracks the various Delta Volume Distribution patterns that keep repeating over and over again).
 
That is a pretty nasty 50 day average violation since we hoped back above the 200 day average.

I say this market is headed for the 200 test my friends.

More downside to come.

No Heat
 

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