Black Monday Oct 31, 2011

"Merkel's Leadership 'Like Captain of Titanic': Analyst"

"The only real solution to the crisis currently dragging down the euro zone is the scrapping of the single currency, according to John Wadle, head of regional banks research at Mirae Asset...."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45299872
 
Quote from nitro:

Thanks for the information. Do you have a link to the risk hedges you can post here?

Market Makers aren't taking sides. They sell the stuff with a spread, then hedge and let their traders manage second to second risk. That means nothing to me.

Fairly priced? The trend is higher, with every indication that 7% cannot be contained in Italy. Spain risk is now under the microscope, with Portugal imminent. If it spreads to France, game over.

I am now of the mind that you can't have a monetary union without the rest of the glue. It is as if every state in the US was under the dollar, but nothing else tied us together. It won't work, imo.
More...

Goldman´s Blankfein said today at Bank of America conference;

“I don’t think that we can conclude that this slowdown is secular rather than cyclical change,” Blankfein, 57, said today at an investor conference in New York hosted by Bank of America Corp. (BAC)’s Merrill Lynch unit. “The world will snap back and it will be a surprise and it will be faster than people think.”

Warren B. buying IBM for $10 billion (ask yourself why he is buying NOW and not lets say in a couple of months IF EU crisis is really coming?

J. Kyle Bass, portfolio manager at Dallas-based Hayman Capital Management LP, bought the 4.9% stake in MGIC Investment Corp, according to federal filings.

Something is lurking behind the corner and I see massive signs of optimism...
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

Goldman´s Blankfein said today at Bank of America conference;

“I don’t think that we can conclude that this slowdown is secular rather than cyclical change,” Blankfein, 57, said today at an investor conference in New York hosted by Bank of America Corp. (BAC)’s Merrill Lynch unit. “The world will snap back and it will be a surprise and it will be faster than people think.”

Warren B. buying IBM for $10 billion (ask yourself why he is buying NOW and not lets say in a couple of months IF EU crisis is really coming?

J. Kyle Bass, portfolio manager at Dallas-based Hayman Capital Management LP, bought the 4.9% stake in MGIC Investment Corp, according to federal filings.

Something is lurking behind the corner and I see massive signs of optimism...
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Ok,

Well those are exactly the things that I tune out. But I understand why you would think that is a good sign.
 
I am going out on a limb again. This [options] expiration week will be very volatile. Probably the biggest swings will come on Wed/Thurs/Fri. A loss of 3 to 5% this week.

Those people that buy/sell option, puts are likely underpriced, and by extension, calls (since you can purchase a synthetic put).
 
Making predictions on the internet is going out on a limb? Well then I'm gonna show you who has the balls around here.

I predict that S&P will crash 500 pts on 14 February, it will be called the heart break.
 
Quote from Mav88:

Making predictions on the internet is going out on a limb? Well then I'm gonna show you who has the balls around here.
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Oh yeah.. uh uh... I'll go out on a limb too!!!:D

Equities will close within 25 cents of the strike price...:cool:
 
I see little to support a crash on Monday. It looks more like a sideways but volatile day setting up likely bound by the previous days trading ranges. I think there might be some surprising reversal on the bond market as they got punished. With that kind of beating an abusive market might let up so as not to kill the organism.
 
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