Black Monday Oct 31, 2011

nitro · Oct 31, 2011

The MF global bankruptcy and the fact the Interactive Brokers deal fell through, may mean forced liquidation of positions. It won't happen today, but it will cause dislocations, and if traders smell blood, they will trade in front of it.

Italian bond spreads widening to dangerous levels.

iceman1 · Oct 31, 2011

Quote from Blackhawk:

"It will be remembered as the Halloween Crash."

He did the Crash
He did the Monster Crash
The Monster Crash
It was a graveyard smash
He did the Crash
It caught on in a FLASH
He did the Crash
He did the Monster Crash

With apologies to Bobby "Boris" Pickett

thanks for the LOL

(but the day is not over yet.... ?? :-( )

iceman1 · Oct 31, 2011

Quote from nitro:

We will probably see something close to 123x in SPX today, nowhere near a crash.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3343516#post3343516

For those that want my definition of a crash, at least one circuit breaker has to happen.

the first of a month is usually strong... with 4Q and Thanksgiving month. So it's hard to handicap a large move down... if we don't rally late and do see continuation tomorrow.. then late Tuesday could be significantly higher

Then again, the chart does look vulnerable for sure... unless its in the cards to make new highs rather than reverse.

Ghost of Cutten · Oct 31, 2011

You forgot the first rule of soothsaying - predict an event or predict the date something big will happen, never predict both.

Ghost of Cutten · Oct 31, 2011

Quote from iceman1:

the first of a month is usually strong... with 4Q and Thanksgiving month. So it's hard to handicap a large move down... if we don't rally late and do see continuation tomorrow.. then late Tuesday could be significantly higher

Then again, the chart does look vulnerable for sure... unless its in the cards to make new highs rather than reverse.

So the market will go down unless it goes up?

iceman1 · Oct 31, 2011

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

So the market will go down unless it goes up?

LOL

Yep... that's about right! That's the best I can do at this level. Gaps above and below. No way to know which way is next.

All I know is I have Nov18 125p on NFLX (entered at 15) and the POS is only down -2 today. What do I do. Sell premium at 80p strike, take profit or buy stock

Laissez Faire · Oct 31, 2011

SPX down 2,47%.

Maybe not Black Monday, but hey, at least it was down.

What about tomorrow?

PushPull · Oct 31, 2011

Quote from PushPull:

99.99% chance now. Si!.

TGregg · Oct 31, 2011

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

So the market will go down unless it goes up?

Not in this case. He's saying it will go up unless it goes down.

deadbroke · Oct 31, 2011

Quote from nitro:

I have never made these sorts of predictions, but there it is. I think we see intraday limit down moves in many stocks, or 10%. We may see index daily limits set, although that is far less likely.

This won't be a "Flash Crash", but a real crash.

What does nitro's wife make for dinner?

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