Black Monday: Nuclear Meltdown in Japan
- Thread starter bond_trad3r
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Are you sure that's a good idea? I would encourage you to rethink that.
so we did go a little over the top there.. glad thats settled.
I do agree these reactors are toast though. Although that was pretty much certain the moment they pumped seawater in.
While it seems (and I use that term lightly) containment is heading in the right direction and barring another large earthquake that makes everything worse, the fear trade should reside leaving us at a where to now crossroad.... Then I guess the question is what is a good short term (1-2 month) trade to take advantage of this?
Long Oil? I may be way off here, but that drop in Oil can only be short term.... Can imagine Japan chewing through large amounts of the stuff to get back on their feet.....
I still believe that whatever happens now this is the catalyst that will take usd/jpy to properly test the all time lows from 1995.
Once that low has been taken out hard, the market will be free to sell off the yen big time (usd/jpy goes up). First it has got to take out all the weak hands with stops just below that low.
On a side note, lets all hope there aren't any more quakes in the reactor area and things stay somewhat stable..
Once that low has been taken out hard, the market will be free to sell off the yen big time (usd/jpy goes up). First it has got to take out all the weak hands with stops just below that low.
On a side note, lets all hope there aren't any more quakes in the reactor area and things stay somewhat stable..
Remember. This situation is changing quickly, and this thread is not brand new, it's been going for days. People like to quote information from 2 days ago and say "see, you are wrong" as though the information was just posted 5 minutes ago.
That said, if I had believed everything they reported on CNN, I would not have known Friday that there was almost certainly multiple meltdowns coming, and I would not have made money Monday and today. Basically, a person has to use their brain, take the facts, and use logic to discern the truth. Facts are not truth.
If I were back in Tokyo, I would be heading south, as far as possible, to get out of that wind and put some distance between myself and those reactors. I do not in any way, shape, or form take the government reports of radiation levels as truth. They are factual readings, but they are not the whole story, I promise you.
Good traders are critical of news and separate out the useful information from the implications, fluff, lies, equivocation and other misdirection.
All of that aside, it's clear to me that whether the fallout is massive or minor, those plants are never coming back online. That means more LNG and Coal will be used for power.
I stand by KOL and YNC longs. I stand by aussie dollar longs. I wouldn't touch a long position on anything related to nuclear with your account let alone my own, and anything Japan exports, particularly food related, I would avoid or short, depending on the individual play.
The stimulus from BoJ, not to mention the Fed, is bullish for commodities, and the middle east situation, though it is getting little attention, is still important. Obama appears afraid to even talk about intervention in a serious way, so Gadafi is empowered... that makes the possibility of a regional conflict greater, and continued instability.
Quote from piezoe:
I think you could be very good on CNN. This is exactly the kind of "reporting" that builds viewers and revenues.
at what temperature does hydrogen separate from oxygen in the water atom? a hydrogen explosion is proof that this temperature or higher was reached.
http://www.thenakedscientists.com/HTML/content/latest-questions/question/2598/
2000 degrees C.
Completely agreed !
I know the SHORT hate to find this is just another "buy the fxxxing dip" event again