Black Monday: Nuclear Meltdown in Japan

There is a live news stream (with English Translation) http://live.nicovideo.jp/watch/lv43296023

PM has just given a statement. Situation is deteriorating. There is a fire in #4 reactor building. No fuel in reactor, but there are problems with spent fuel. Radiation readings are high - 400 mSv/hr. A few hours of this you would probably be dead or at least very ill.

Probably a rupture in #2 containment. Still pumping water into 1,2,3 reactors.

Nikkei is in full on crash mode -13.7% at the moment.
 
Quote from krazykarl:

Since no trader is an expert in everything, a lot of research is finding out as much relevant material as possible as quickly as possible, then getting in a position to capitalize. Nothing wrong with some internet conjecture. :)
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Internet conjecture gives you no edge in predicting inherently chaotic and unstable situations.

Most people on this thread are not looking at possibilities, they are forming views on what will happen. That is not how a professional trader should think. You don't say "A will happen" then punt on it, especially when you have absolutely no idea if A will happen or not. Rather, you say "if A happens, I do X. If B happens, I do Y. If C happens, I do Z."
 
Question about part of my trading plan...

When do I get my wife and 4 kids in the car and leave san diego.
It will cost me some money and clients... but I do not want to see my little 13 mos old daughter start glowing and losing her hair.
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Internet conjecture gives you no edge in predicting inherently chaotic and unstable situations.

Most people on this thread are not looking at possibilities, they are forming views on what will happen. That is not how a professional trader should think. You don't say "A will happen" then punt on it, especially when you have absolutely no idea if A will happen or not. Rather, you say "if A happens, I do X. If B happens, I do Y. If C happens, I do Z."
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I trade differently - more "what's the probability of A? B? C?" - then open positions accordingly.
 
Quote from krazykarl:

lol... I'm pretty relaxed actually. :) I'm sure it's worse than advertised, but you cannot dispute that the reading 2km away from the reactors are barely above background levels. From what I understand, the biggest issue right now is the possible release of things like Cesium via steam from the water they are cooling the core(s) with.
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Just woke up to a third explosion, a reactor breach reported by LA times, Tokyo radiation levels 23 times above normal, and mSv levels at the plant ~600 hr. This is nothing to gloat about, but the data points indicated a clear trend was in place, early on. Those nuke plants weren't built to sustain a 9.0 magnitude quake...

That said, the Nikkei is a screaming buy if a nuke disaster gets averted. Short yen, too. Could be another 5-8% to the downside if it goes into full-scale meltdown. Maybe another 5-10% after that, if radioactive fallout blankets Japanese cities. First, wait to see if the partial meltdown can be arrested. Any full-scale meltdown will see heavy market intervention by the BOJ to prop.
 
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