Black Monday - December 31, 2012

themickey · Jan 1, 2013

Quote from iceman1:

do you have no opinion as to January markets/?!? None? No bias or hunch whatsoever?! No gut feel?! No brain?! Well, you must be a
DAY TRADER! Ugh!

[and here i thought opinions were like assholes; everyone has one!]

LOL

Well no, if you were asking me. Have no opinion whatsoever.
Once upon a time I would have, but I don't operate like that any longer.
Opinions are worthless, signals mean everything. Just go with the blows.

Daring · Jan 1, 2013

Quote from themickey:

Well no, if you were asking me. Have no opinion whatsoever.
Once upon a time I would have, but I don't operate like that any longer.
Opinions are worthless, signals mean everything. Just go with the blows.

Here's a guy that graduated from the newbie era.

oldtime · Jan 1, 2013

Quote from hajimow:

I don't agree. iceman1 gave his opinion and his belief. If one stucks to his opnion when he sees things have changed, then it is a different story.

Personally I try to read between the lines. Sometimes your voice gets lost in cheers of the market. If you look carefully, everyone's tax will go up in 2013. At least 2%. Mortgage deduction will be capped (which I am very happy because I don't have mortgage!!) So 2013 should be worse than 2012. Personally I like Pimco guys opinion on the market. There are some intelligent and educated analysts there.

I would tend to agree. Form an opinion, and trade on it. 90% is money management, 10% is your abilility to read the market.

when you trade against your opinion, you tend to take small profits. Keep doing that, and it will get you in the end.

trader198 · Jan 3, 2013

if you do not have your own judgement, I think no one should trade.

if your judgemnet is just signals or indicators, then you should not trade either. follow signals/indicators are just like following tips.

money management should not be a significant part of trading.
bear in mind, warren buffet bought 1/3 silver futures (fully loaded) at the lowest to send him into current status.

trust your own judgemnet and not listen to market noises is an edge. most people trust indicators/setups, they do not trust their own judgemnet, that is why they do not have edge, and become the 90% loser group.

Quote from oldtime:

I would tend to agree. Form an opinion, and trade on it. 90% is money management, 10% is your abilility to read the market.

when you trade against your opinion, you tend to take small profits. Keep doing that, and it will get you in the end.

OddTrader · Jan 3, 2013

A mini Black Friday on 4th January 2012 (or during the weekend), and the ES will be 1390 by Monday opening on 7th (now Thursday 1459.25).

Quote from bond_trad3r:

I might actually get this one right this time!

History never repeats...

(Then again, the markets only crash in Octobers.)

tradingjournals · Jan 3, 2013

Quote from oldtime:

I would tend to agree. Form an opinion, and trade on it. 90% is money management, 10% is your abilility to read the market.

when you trade against your opinion, you tend to take small profits. Keep doing that, and it will get you in the end.

Have you ever heard of a negative sum game?

iceman1 · Jan 3, 2013

Quote from OddTrader:

A mini Black Friday on 4th January 2012 (or during the weekend), and the ES will be 1390 by Monday opening on 7th (now Thursday 1459.25).

1425-1430

bond_trad3r · Jan 4, 2013

Quote from OddTrader:

A mini Black Friday on 4th January 2012 (or during the weekend), and the ES will be 1390 by Monday opening on 7th (now Thursday 1459.25).

Maybe you will have better luck than me. I swing trade and moved significantly to cash at the very bottom of the market when we started pulling back a couple weeks ago. After my Black Monday call earlier this week, I'm actually tempted to do the exact opposite of what I think the market will do.

With that said, I think stocks will go down once again on Monday due to QE news from the fed reserve and everything else being priced in... so maybe I should buy? lol

oldtime · Jan 4, 2013

Quote from bond_trad3r:

Maybe you will have better luck than me. I swing trade and moved significantly to cash at the very bottom of the market when we started pulling back a couple weeks ago. After my Black Monday call earlier this week, I'm actually tempted to do the exact opposite of what I think the market will do.

With that said, I think stocks will go down once again on Monday due to QE news from the fed reserve and everything else being priced in... so maybe I should buy? lol

laugh if you want, that whipsaw will kill you. Maybe not your account, but your mind.

The best cure for stupidity is consistency

We all have little flings

If the first one works we just keep doing it until we get burned

If the first one fails we go back to doing what worked and become rich conservatives

OddTrader · Jan 4, 2013

Quote from bond_trad3r:

Maybe you will have better luck than me. I swing trade and moved significantly to cash at the very bottom of the market when we started pulling back a couple weeks ago. After my Black Monday call earlier this week, I'm actually tempted to do the exact opposite of what I think the market will do.

With that said, I think stocks will go down once again on Monday due to QE news from the fed reserve and everything else being priced in... so maybe I should buy? lol

Actually i think whatever predictions, especially mine, for tail movements should be basically just for fun.