Black Monday - December 31, 2012
- Thread starter bond_trad3r
- Start date
Yeah but convert that into happy meals and tell me what you get. TELL ME!
Are we starting to drift down??
CL can shoot up or down 3+ points in a matter of minutes. With no stop in place, care to share how you "repair" your trade and still guarantee a profit 99% of the time when your position goes 3 points against you that quickly?
I don't follow that index but let me give you one example. I was shorting ES as a hedge to my other positions and then covring it with one or two points. Then about 10 ago when I shorted at 1422.5 (December contract) it started to go up and and it went to 1450 (I don't remember exactly the highest point). At some point it dropped to 1424 but I did not cover with almost two points loss. I was selling covered PUts and then covering them with profit so by then my average was not 1421.5 anymore. On Thursday Dec 20 (the night of expiry) I rolled over the contract to the next month and a few hours later ES dropped to 1391 and I covered my short at 1415 with profit.
Here are the tricks:
When you know something will go down 100%, don't put 100% of your moeny on that trade. Most of the times your 100% does not really mean 100%. Go slow and then if it goes against you average down and cover the portions that you are making money.
When you do a trade, do you 500% research and don't assume that stop loss will save your ass as a sugar daddy. make damn sure that you are doing a good trade and once you break it you won it.
Another example: I shorted MCD from 87.80 and it kept going up to 91 and since I was convinced that it will go down, I sold covered PUTs for 87.5 and collected some premium for a few weeks and then on Friday I covered all my shorts at 87.80. My average was 88.52. By the way I believe MCD downtrend is almsot over and I will think about a good entry point.
I said CL will drop 50 cents before the market open I was right. This is called vision. You get that vision after staring at the tck by tick price for 17 years. Not a good return for 17 years of your life.
I predicted market will be flat on Monday (today). So far I am right. Do I make mistakes and go wrong? Yes but I repair my trades. Stop loss is chinese torture.
By the way I put an order to sell CL at market just a few seconds after the market opened at 90.51 and my oprder to cover was 90.01 and it just went through. I makde my $500 minus about $4.5 commission. My reasons to short CL were so obvious:
1- CL rallied from 86 to 91 in a few days and on Friday it stalled so I was expecting a pullback.
2- Fiscal cliff no deal means recession to US and will drag oil price down.
You see trading is easy. You call it trade it trade in noise? I don't care.
1- CL rallied from 86 to 91 in a few days and on Friday it stalled so I was expecting a pullback.
2- Fiscal cliff no deal means recession to US and will drag oil price down.
You see trading is easy. You call it trade it trade in noise? I don't care.
Watch this video. This might help. Watch it 7 times with 100% attention and then watch from 5:00 to 7:00 (14 times). See what he says about stop loss.
Let me also correct myself. Stupid trades cannot be repaired. Good wise trades always give you many chances to repair.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afbBm7B1o0w