Black Every Day?

Maybe I am being stubborn, but I just refuse to believe this thesis, at least at this meeting:

Two of Fed’s Own Primary Dealers Warn Shock Hike Awaits Markets

  • Barclays, BNP see September hike even as futures show 22% odds
  • ‘There is no perfect time’ to raise rates, BNP’s Rosner says
There’s uncommon dissent in the ranks of the Federal Reserve’s primary dealers over the central bank’s interest-rate decision this week.

Two of the Fed’s 23 preferred bond-trading partners -- Barclays Plc and BNP Paribas SA -- are betting against their peers and the bond market by forecasting officials will raise rates Wednesday. It’s the first time more than one dealer has gone against the consensus during the week of a policy meeting since last September, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Economists at both banks say traders have too steeply discounted officials’ intent to hike after the Fed has remained on hold for longer than expected.

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“There is no perfect time -- there will always be some uncertainties in the data,” said Laura Rosner, senior U.S. economist in New York at BNP. “Despite a multitude of shocks through the last nine months, which have delayed the Fed, hiring has continued to be robust. There is a window of opportunity for the Fed to continue normalizing, and we think it’ll take it.”

The bond market and Fed are locked in a battle of wills over the direction of interest rates more than seven years after the end of the recession. The central bank’s credibility is at stake after policy makers began the year projecting four rate increases, after liftoff from near zero in December, yet remained on hold time and again because of economic circumstances in the U.S. and abroad. Even last month, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer hinted that the bank could still raise rates twice this year.


Fed Odds
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rimary-dealers-warn-shock-hike-awaits-markets
 
Japan Central Banks decision will be made at around 11:00 PM Eastern.

This imo is going to move the markets far more than the FEDs non move tomorrow and USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, TRY/JPY etc will be rocking tonight. No matter what the decision, there is lots of charge on either side.

In addition, if the FED does hike tomorrow (which I estimate at almost zero chance), that combined with this will be an economic thermonuclear day.

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Volatility should be off the charts tomorrow 2 hrs before the markets close


Chance of rate hike tomorrow ....oh about a 0.01%%%% chance.....that 0.01% is As much as the banks are paying you on your savings accounts since 2009.

So after the announcement the markets should rally about 1.5%+ gold will surge as well....the fed will once again bow to wallstreet ....
 
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