Black Every Day?

Correlation between High Yield Junk Bonds and the SPX is reaching levels only seen once before in 8 years. Anyone with a remotely mathematical eye can see the cyclical nature of the metric. Fast (exponential) spikes with mostly slow decay.

highYieldSP500Chart.png


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/18/junk-bond-etfs-are-sending-an-important-stock-market-signal.html
 
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There is a theory that the FED excess reserves will drop not trivially before a rate rise with at least one month lag. Hence, zero chance of one today. I don't buy this theory, since I do not see data far back enough, but it is true that in December of last year excess reserves declined precipitously:

excess-reservers.png
 
The earliest the FED will raise rates is December. That is my expectation, .25 (possibly .50 but that is unlikely) in December.

SPX will probably see 2200 soon.
 
After favoring asymmetric risk to the downside, Model now says oil [WTI] at FV intermediate term. That means risk is close to symmetric here.
 
nitro said:
The earliest the FED will raise rates is December. That is my expectation, .25 (possibly .50 but that is unlikely) in December.

SPX will probably see 2200 soon.
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No chance they will lower rates to compete with Japan and Europe?
 
noddyboy said:
No chance they will lower rates to compete with Japan and Europe?
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Well if you listen to Schiff he says negative IRs or QE5,6 etc is inevitable. Lots of people are saying that very "soon", a huge swoon in the market is coming, and QE Infinity is on the way.

Other than a black swan event, I just don't see this happening, at least not for a one or two years, ++.

Russia invades the Baltics is a black swan event. You really think that is going to happen?
 
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