Black Every Day?

I'm yawning here....how many times do we have to see the same thing over and over and over and over again....how many times in the past years have we seen the market sell off 5-10% in a few weeks and then rally it all back a few weeks later....rinse and repeat...same thing over and over.....unless this is the true breaking point where we see markets drop 40%, which is my prediction...where the Dow is trading around 10,000-12,000 ....this market is lucky to be above 17,000 let alone 12,000.
 
The gold craze seems a bit far fetched to me. Granted, if the FED doesn't raise until 2018, there is an argument for $1400 gold. But does anyone really believe that thesis? Some are saying that it isn't just the FED, it is that US bond yields will be pushed even lower as foreign market money flees those bond markets seeking anything other than negative rates.

I don't believe that the FED doesn't touch IRs for two years. I am not even sure it won't raise in December of this year. I think gold is close to fully valued here, if not overvalued.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/03/gold...8-months-as-global-bond-yields-crash-pro.html
 
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S2007S said:
I'm yawning here....how many times do we have to see the same thing over and over and over and over again....how many times in the past years have we seen the market sell off 5-10% in a few weeks and then rally it all back a few weeks later....rinse and repeat...same thing over and over.....unless this is the true breaking point where we see markets drop 40%, which is my prediction...where the Dow is trading around 10,000-12,000 ....this market is lucky to be above 17,000 let alone 12,000.
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Agree. This whole "drop then bounce" is mere conditioning.

Soon enough, we'll see a big drop, then a flatline for a several days as boatloads of money jump in to play the bounce, and when as much money as possible is in the game and short interest is minimal, ....boom, 10% down. Then that will rinse wash and repeat. I think we'll see DOW 15k at some point in the next 6 months. That being said, we may also see all-time highs in the near future.
 
The stock market is simply wrong. But I maintain, that as long as there is plenty of liquidity to buy dips, and there is no competition from bond yields, markets won't reprice to a level where it makes sense.

I see no drying of liquidity any time soon. That means the only way the market has a 20% correction is when bond yields go higher, which doesn't appear anywhere on the horizon either. The entire market is stuck in a negative feed back loop.

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The last time China’s currency was sinking this fast, investors around the world responded by fleeing riskier assets. Now, they’re taking the declines in stride.

While the yuan has depreciated 1.7 percent over the past two weeks to the lowest level since November 2010, developing-nation and U.S. equities have held steady over the same period and the VIX volatility index has tumbled. Even the added headwind of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union has failed to derail markets that just six months ago convulsed with every move lower in the Chinese currency....

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ng-again-but-few-seem-to-mind-in-win-for-pboc
 
I look for next earnings announcements to suck big, with a few still doing Ok. Predicting SPX 2000 by end of earnings.

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