Black Every Day?

"...In order to pull the trigger again following a single, 25-basis-point rate increase in December, the Fed needs signs of:
  • continued improvement in the labor market;
  • progress toward its medium-term goal of 2 percent inflation;
  • a reversal in the trend of declining inflation expectations, both market- and survey-based;
  • rising wages;
  • narrowing credit spreads;
  • and a U.S. dollar exchange rate that is not so strong as to depress exports.
  • Before they act, policymakers want to be sure there is no financial market volatility anywhere in the world;
  • no "uncertainty," such as the kind generated by the June 23 U.K. referendum on remaining in the European Union;
  • and no negative developments in China or other large emerging market nations. ..."

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...s-foolish-to-the-market/ar-AAh1z2P?li=BBnbfcN

In other news, a truly rare circumstance, five planets will align in the sky

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...s-jupiter-saturn-alignment-astronomy/54881846
 
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All this [indirect] dollar strength is genuine fear that Brexit (flight to safety), regardless of the way it goes, may have a surprise announcement even if the vote is to stay. I think England votes to leave, but in a very drawn out manner (3+ years) and until they find a replacement.

There is no way anyone in their normal head thinks the FED raises tomorrow. Zero. People might be afraid of the statement though raising the odds of July. I say, close to Zero to that too.
 
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nitro said:
"...In order to pull the trigger again following a single, 25-basis-point rate increase in December, the Fed needs signs of:
  • continued improvement in the labor market;
  • progress toward its medium-term goal of 2 percent inflation;
  • a reversal in the trend of declining inflation expectations, both market- and survey-based;
  • rising wages;
  • narrowing credit spreads;
  • and a U.S. dollar exchange rate that is not so strong as to depress exports.
  • Before they act, policymakers want to be sure there is no financial market volatility anywhere in the world;
  • no "uncertainty," such as the kind generated by the June 23 U.K. referendum on remaining in the European Union;
  • and no negative developments in China or other large emerging market nations. ..."

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...s-foolish-to-the-market/ar-AAh1z2P?li=BBnbfcN

In other news, a truly rare circumstance, five planets will align in the sky

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...s-jupiter-saturn-alignment-astronomy/54881846
More...


The alignment was 1/2016...
 
The FED statement makes is look like there is an explanation. Same with the FED minutes. But that is all made up and it is smoke and mirros. All you have to do is look at FFFs.

Here is the routine:

  • The FED heads go out and make all sorts of statements between meetings.
  • The FFFs react to those statements and either gives the FED a changing grade through probability.

On FED day, if the FFFs are less than 70% ish, no go. It is not the FED that decides, it is the market. The FED simply asks permission through rhetoric.
 
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