Black Every Day?
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
Thanks
Approaching target of 2072 SPX. Will exit all my shorts there. The VIX play is profitable, but not anywhere near what I expected - market is simply saying the FED is a long put against all but the most heinous news.
So, I am exiting not because I think the market is Fairly Valued (not even close), but because the market doesn't give a shit about anything other than the FED.
It is all one trade at this point.
So, I am exiting not because I think the market is Fairly Valued (not even close), but because the market doesn't give a shit about anything other than the FED.
It is all one trade at this point.
Madness. NQ is down 46, with the ES and YM only down mildly. It used to be that Apple and Netflix tanked and the market thought better or risk. Now? Who cares we have the FEDs koolaid! That is how addicted to rates the markets are, and how starved institutions are for yield.
But wait. That's not all! There is more!
As Fed meets, something's 'amiss' in bond market
Looking at the bond market in the past week, it might appear from the rising yields that the Fed is getting close to hiking rates.
The 10-year yield was as high as 1.93 percent Tuesday, up from 1.78 percent a week ago. The 2-year yield rose to 0.86 percent, from 0.76 percent last week.
But the view on Wall Street does not reflect these rising yields. Many economists say the Fed is still months away from a rate hike, and fed funds futures show low expectations for a hike this year. Add to that the economic data lately have been softer than expected...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/26/as-fed-meets-somethings-amiss-in-bond-market.html
But wait. That's not all! There is more!
As Fed meets, something's 'amiss' in bond market
Looking at the bond market in the past week, it might appear from the rising yields that the Fed is getting close to hiking rates.
The 10-year yield was as high as 1.93 percent Tuesday, up from 1.78 percent a week ago. The 2-year yield rose to 0.86 percent, from 0.76 percent last week.
But the view on Wall Street does not reflect these rising yields. Many economists say the Fed is still months away from a rate hike, and fed funds futures show low expectations for a hike this year. Add to that the economic data lately have been softer than expected...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/26/as-fed-meets-somethings-amiss-in-bond-market.html
Why bother shorting? Literally nothing matters anymore. NQ green by EOD tomorrow would not surprise me. This is ridiculous. It's not even that I'm being bearish that gets me mad. I can take being wrong there. It's as they say on zerohedge, the Fed is using the markets as a policy tool which irks me. They are forcing people to take more and more risk for less and less yield. For what? This terrible "recovery."
Honestly Nitro, it makes sense. Who would sell before Dovish Yellen is out? Would you? Even the most bearish among us have learned to step aside. Therefore, AAPL and TWTR must fall as they reported bad, but nothing else would, because eager buyers will buy any gap down tomorrow knowing that any shorts will rush to cover before FOMC announcement.
Of course, one day the pattern will be different, but from a risk-reward standpoint, it doesn't seem like a good bet. To be clear, I am not saying that I am betting the farm on it rising. It is like a nuclear war -- the only way to win is not to play.
Only in modern times. If you go back pre 2008, FED or no FED a premarket move like the one NQ is having would send ES down at least 15.
The worlds most profitable company just had a horrible quarter! Think about it.
That was so 8 years ago.
Shanghai was the most liquid equity futures index in the world last year. From the peak last year, it went from 5500 to 3000, but meanwhile SPY is near all-time high then and also now. So of the biggest stock markets in the world, one drops about half, the other continued new highs. Nothing is linked anymore. It is all about central banks deciding which market should be where.