Black Every Day?

Holding VIX longs into weekend is waranted imo. Next Thursday is FOMC day. There is very little chance that the FED will raise, but imo the risk is on the hawkish side. If they are truly data dependent, and they are mostly swayed by:

  • stock market levels
  • employment tightness
There is almost zero chance that the news can be anything but neutral to hawkish. So, imo, this is a sell the news event.

The hard question is what to do between now and then. The market seems to be in tread water mode, and it is either buyer exhausted, or wants to go higher on more dollar weakness.

We'll see.
 
They have thrown cannonballs at 94 DXY and it won't budge. No question, long VIX here is either correct, or nearly correct.

It all depends on your tolerance for pain.
 
nitro said:
They have thrown cannonballs at 94 DXY and it won't budge. No question, long VIX here is either correct, or nearly correct.

It all depends on your tolerance for pain.
More...

Frustrating that SPY is down but IBB is up.
 
Imo, the biggest threat to the stock market now is not the FED since there is zero chance they raise next week - although, that is more than fully priced in. Not because they shouldn't raise, but because the FED is a lap dog to FFFs.

The real threat is a Brexit.

If GB exits the EU, the Euro will probably weaken considerably, with a probable target of parity to the USD. The dollar will then skyrocket against almost every other currency, and there is no stopping SPX from imploding at that point. And that is not even counting what will happen to oil. I estimate the odds of a Brexit at about 30%.

One very strange thing that almost no one is talking about. What's up with the overnight move in the Yen?
 
nitro said:
Imo, the biggest threat to the stock market now is not the FED since there is zero chance they raise next week - although, that is more than fully priced in. The real threat is a Brexit.

If GB exits the EU, the Euro will probably weaken considerably, with a probable target of parity to the USD. The dollar will then skyrocket against almost every other currenccy, and there is no stopping SPX from imploding at that point. And that is not even counting what will happen to oil.

One very strange thing that almost no one is talking about. What's up with the overnight move in the Yen?
More...

Everyone is talking about Yen on Bloomberg. It is the negative rate rumours again (on more and more assets.)
 
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