Black Every Day?

[nitro]

Yep. The thinking here is that since the FED is in accommodating mode again, the one thing that lifts markets like no other is certainty and liquidity. With an April rate hike priced in by FFFs at zero probability, everything else be damned. So, markets are expensive for a reason, and they are cheap for a reason.

The question is, is it getting it wrong.

 

[noddyboy]

That is a good time for reversals. I would put on 1/3 of position on. Hold over weekend. Monday/Tusday of next week may continue a little higher, but full position on by next Wednesday for a week. Exit two days before FED announcement following week.

This time we hold over the weekend. Alternatively, wait for late Monday to put on 2/3 position and say by 10:30 full long TVIX or whatever you use to go long volatility. I am 2/3 of size already long VIX.

I am looking at the VIX forward curve extremely inverted -- I wonder if it is better to replicate what you are doing using options but to use later months rather than buying the front month.

 

[nitro]

Oil markets appear to be afraid of Doha Oil Summit on Sunday. Model is saying WTI "FV" is approximately $41 here, well above the current price.

 

[der_kommissar]

A surge in gas prices over the summer is the last thing this incumbent political party needs come November...That quaint notion that higher equity prices will somehow appease the plebe's has long been proven false...Nothing gets them riled up more than seeing that $1.50 gas suddenly surge back to $3.00...These CB's are playing with so much fire, it boggles the mind at this point.

 

[noddyboy]

That is a good time for reversals. I would put on 1/3 of position on. Hold over weekend. Monday/Tusday of next week may continue a little higher, but full position on by next Wednesday for a week. Exit two days before FED announcement following week.

This time we hold over the weekend. Alternatively, wait for late Monday to put on 2/3 position and say by 10:30 full long TVIX or whatever you use to go long volatility. I am 2/3 of size already long VIX.

Anyway to put my money where my mouth is, I am back into put options today.

 

[nitro]

Uhuh

"...The markets may be recognizing this as well. Five-year market-based inflation expectations have jumped from 0.93 percent on Feb. 9 to 1.43 percent on April 5. It is quite likely that inflation, even core PCE, will rise to levels that the Fed is uncomfortable with while economic growth remains mediocre. Indeed, don't be surprised to see the Fed act on inflation fears and sooner than the dovish view in its last statement would suggest...."

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/12/the-us-faces-a-perfect-economic-storm-commentary.html

 

[nitro]

 

[noddyboy]

That is a good time for reversals. I would put on 1/3 of position on. Hold over weekend. Monday/Tusday of next week may continue a little higher, but full position on by next Wednesday for a week. Exit two days before FED announcement following week.

This time we hold over the weekend. Alternatively, wait for late Monday to put on 2/3 position and say by 10:30 full long TVIX or whatever you use to go long volatility. I am 2/3 of size already long VIX.

TVIX at 3.39...still buying tomorrow? It seems like a good call, OR a new bull market. We can't have both.

 

[nitro]

TVIX at 3.39...still buying tomorrow? It seems like a good call, OR a new bull market. We can't have both.

Yep. I mean, I am buying either late today or 10:30 is tomorrow.

BTW, I am 2/3 in already so I am losing.

 

[noddyboy]

Yep. I mean, I am buying either late today or 10:30 is tomorrow.

BTW, I am 2/3 in already so I am losing.

I am slightly up because I got in the bulk of my IBB puts yesterday, and for whatever reason it is down today, as everyone is choosing to buy energy stocks instead. (It is delta hedged but a big move works in my favor.)