Black Every Day?

nitro said:
You mean between TVIX and SPY (or ES etc)?

Depends on size of account and risk tolerance. Seriously, if there is one thing that I hope people will listen to me (because of the disasters I have had) is either:

  1. Use very small size compared to your account
  2. Use options with bigger size but still comfortable, preferably in a spread
The whole idea is to be able to let a position play out without fear. So, depending on account size, either:

  • Small size TVIX
  • Small size SPY
  • Small size SPY options
  • Option spread on SPY
  • Option Spread on VIX futures
  • Option Spread on ES
  • Option Spread on SPX options
  • Only for hombres: Outright Options on ES
  • Only for hombres: Outright Options on VIX futures
  • If you are crazy or have a large account: Outright short ES
Remember: You need to let this position play out, which means taking it home overnight for possibly days!

The last three are VERY risky. Some are hard to get into on a spread because of B/A spread or liquidity. There are old traders on wall street, and there are bold traders on wall street, but there are no old bold traders on wall street.

I hope I didn't misunderstand your question. They are very terse.
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Thanks Nitro.

Sorry for the short comments...I didn't go long TVIX, but had options and I spent the whole day delta hedging and managing the orders. TVIX did well today, but I guess I hate the feeling of losing control to an ETF that I can't understand. i.e tell me the price of SPX and VIX, and I still can't tell you the price of TVIX. Say SPX goes to 2018 as you predict, I would know my payoff with all of your above trades, except those involving TVIX.

That is not to say TVIX might not be the winner. I do note that the TVIX shares had huge ETF issuance/demand lately, and I wonder if it is smart money or dumb money buying.

Also, VIX is near lows, but short interest is near highs and skew is pricing in risks, so clearly there is lots of disconnect whether the market is overbought or oversold. My options expire soon, so I have to decide the next move.
 
I exited my long volatility play into this weekend. Will reassess next week, but I am 90% to be back in long vola by mid next week.

I don't like weekends.
 
noddyboy said:
What is special about 2pm?
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That is a good time for reversals. I would put on 1/3 of position on. Hold over weekend. Monday/Tusday of next week may continue a little higher, but full position on by next Wednesday for a week. Exit two days before FED announcement following week.

This time we hold over the weekend. Alternatively, wait for late Monday to put on 2/3 position and say by 10:30 full long TVIX or whatever you use to go long volatility. I am 2/3 of size already long VIX.
 
nitro said:
That is a good time for reversals. I would put on 1/3 of position on. Hold over weekend. Monday/Tusday of next week may continue a little higher, but full position on by next Wednesday for a week. Exit two days before FED announcement following week.

This time we hold over the weekend. Alternatively, wait for late Monday to put on 2/3 position and say by 10:30 full long TVIX or whatever you use to go long volatility. I am 2/3 of size already long VIX.
More...

I don't have your courage to buy TVIX at new lows. It will probably work, but I just can't do it.
 
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