Black Every Day?
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
FED's credibility is going to zero. The markets didn't even blink on this news. Show me the money!
Rosengren to markets: You have it all wrong on rate hikes
"Futures markets are wrong, and the Federal Reserve likely should hike rates sooner than they imply, Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said Monday.
In prepared remarks for a speech in Boston, Rosengren — a Federal Open Market Committee voter and historically one of its dovish members — also said markets are too slow in pricing in rate hikes, and that their path of hikes is too low..."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/04/rosengren-to-markets-you-have-it-all-wrong-on-rate-hikes.html
Rosengren to markets: You have it all wrong on rate hikes
"Futures markets are wrong, and the Federal Reserve likely should hike rates sooner than they imply, Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said Monday.
In prepared remarks for a speech in Boston, Rosengren — a Federal Open Market Committee voter and historically one of its dovish members — also said markets are too slow in pricing in rate hikes, and that their path of hikes is too low..."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/04/rosengren-to-markets-you-have-it-all-wrong-on-rate-hikes.html
The American oil boom is proving far harder to kill than OPEC expected.
"Even though OPEC has been drowning the world in oil, the U.S. pumped a near-record 9.18 million barrels per day in January, according to recent stats released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
That's down a miniscule 0.6% from the end of 2015 and is actually slower than the pace of U.S. monthly production declines that started last year.
In other words, America's incredibly resilient oil boom has not tapped on the brakes hard enough yet to fix that epic global supply glut that has caused crude to crash as much as 75% over the past two years.
"The pace of declines have been tortuously slow," said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service.
Many, including OPEC, expected U.S. production would crumble as oil prices declined sharply. The oil cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, shocked the world in November 2014 by continuing to pump aggressively in the face of oversupply. The thinking was that strong OPEC production wouldpressure producers in the U.S. and elsewhere that need higher prices to turn a profit.
Related: Sorry OPEC, U.S. oil production hits 43-year high in 2015
But that hasn't really been the case. At least not to the degree that would solve the supply glut. Last year, U.S. oil output did start to decline year-over-year for the first time since 2010.
U.S. oil production peaked in April 2015 at 9.69 million barrels per day. Yes, it has come down in the months since then, but only by a modest 5%.
"Oh my gosh, it's been incredibly resilient. It's been a much slower pace of declines than anybody projected," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, which tracks global shipments..."
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/06/investing/us-oil-production-decline-eia/index.html
"Even though OPEC has been drowning the world in oil, the U.S. pumped a near-record 9.18 million barrels per day in January, according to recent stats released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
That's down a miniscule 0.6% from the end of 2015 and is actually slower than the pace of U.S. monthly production declines that started last year.
In other words, America's incredibly resilient oil boom has not tapped on the brakes hard enough yet to fix that epic global supply glut that has caused crude to crash as much as 75% over the past two years.
"The pace of declines have been tortuously slow," said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service.
Many, including OPEC, expected U.S. production would crumble as oil prices declined sharply. The oil cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, shocked the world in November 2014 by continuing to pump aggressively in the face of oversupply. The thinking was that strong OPEC production wouldpressure producers in the U.S. and elsewhere that need higher prices to turn a profit.
Related: Sorry OPEC, U.S. oil production hits 43-year high in 2015
But that hasn't really been the case. At least not to the degree that would solve the supply glut. Last year, U.S. oil output did start to decline year-over-year for the first time since 2010.
U.S. oil production peaked in April 2015 at 9.69 million barrels per day. Yes, it has come down in the months since then, but only by a modest 5%.
"Oh my gosh, it's been incredibly resilient. It's been a much slower pace of declines than anybody projected," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData, which tracks global shipments..."
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/06/investing/us-oil-production-decline-eia/index.html
Trade of the year, imo. $/Y to parity. [Disclosure, I am in this trade]
Kensho: One currency dictating market's direction
"The yen is up sharply against the dollar in April and for the year so far. What does that mean for global and U.S. markets if it continues, using history as a guide?
Japan's currency has rallied 10 percent year to date against the dollar and almost 3 percent thus far in April through Wednesday. Investors traditionally buy the yen due to its reputation as a safe haven during times of global uncertainty.
Using Kensho, a tool designed to quantify historical market events, CNBC Pro searched for what happens to markets when the Japanese currency strengthens 3.5 percent against the dollar over one month..."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/06/kensho-one-currency-dictating-markets-direction.html
Kensho: One currency dictating market's direction
"The yen is up sharply against the dollar in April and for the year so far. What does that mean for global and U.S. markets if it continues, using history as a guide?
Japan's currency has rallied 10 percent year to date against the dollar and almost 3 percent thus far in April through Wednesday. Investors traditionally buy the yen due to its reputation as a safe haven during times of global uncertainty.
Using Kensho, a tool designed to quantify historical market events, CNBC Pro searched for what happens to markets when the Japanese currency strengthens 3.5 percent against the dollar over one month..."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/06/kensho-one-currency-dictating-markets-direction.html
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This guy has been saying this for a long time, and I think he is correct. Timing so hard...
Trump right? SocGen bear sees 'imminent' recession
"A flurry of economists might have poured cold water on claims of a "very massive recession" in the United States by Donald Trump, but the Republican presidential front-runner might have just found someone to support his pessimistic view.
Albert Edwards, the notoriously bearish analyst at the French bank Societe Generale, released a note on Thursday highlighting that his "failsafe recession indicator" had stopped flashing amber and had turned to red.
"Newly released U.S. whole economy profits data show a gut wrenching slump. Whole economy profits never normally fall this deeply without a recession unfolding. And with the U.S. corporate sector up to its eyes in debt," he said in the note..."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/07/trump-right-socgen-bear-sees-imminent-recession.html
Trump right? SocGen bear sees 'imminent' recession
"A flurry of economists might have poured cold water on claims of a "very massive recession" in the United States by Donald Trump, but the Republican presidential front-runner might have just found someone to support his pessimistic view.
Albert Edwards, the notoriously bearish analyst at the French bank Societe Generale, released a note on Thursday highlighting that his "failsafe recession indicator" had stopped flashing amber and had turned to red.
"Newly released U.S. whole economy profits data show a gut wrenching slump. Whole economy profits never normally fall this deeply without a recession unfolding. And with the U.S. corporate sector up to its eyes in debt," he said in the note..."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/07/trump-right-socgen-bear-sees-imminent-recession.html
Good for TVIX, which should be the better play?
You mean between TVIX and SPY (or ES etc)?
Depends on size of account and risk tolerance. Seriously, if there is one thing that I hope people will listen to me (because of the disasters I have had) is either:
- Use very small size compared to your account
- Use options with bigger size but still comfortable, preferably in a spread
- Small size TVIX
- Small size SPY
- Small size SPY options
- Option spread on SPY
- Option Spread on VIX futures
- Option Spread on ES
- Option Spread on SPX options
- Only for hombres: Outright Options on ES
- Only for hombres: Outright Options on VIX futures
- If you are crazy or have a large account: Outright short ES
The last three are VERY risky. Some are hard to get into on a spread because of B/A spread or liquidity. There are old traders on wall street, and there are bold traders on wall street, but there are no old bold traders on wall street.
I hope I didn't misunderstand your question. They are very terse.
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You can maybe try to time the entry using my intraday systems here: https://twitter.com/algorithmictra1?lang=en It is flaky though: either twitter or my api is flaky. I sometimes I have to enter things by hand or delete things by hand. For example, right now the system is long ES but it doesn't show up on twitter.
But I would just pick an entry and a target and set your options positions spread accordingly.
But I would just pick an entry and a target and set your options positions spread accordingly.