Black Every Day?
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
Markets have seemed "ominous" to you since SPX was 1100 and you had "models" predicting it was going to 850.
Do us a favor and tell us when to sell would you?
My models say long. I know, weird given that this is a "Black Every Day" thread. But I call them as I program them.
I was asking snarky Nine_Ender, but thanks for your reply. Is this the same model as last year? My model is currently flat.
Oh sorry didn't get that.
No this is a radically different SPX model than anything I have done before.
The talk is that the junk bond market is imploding. However, the theory is that since this is mostly energy related, that the risk to the economy and particularly the stock market is not as bad as it was in 2007/08/09 since that junk bond implosion was due to the financial market. So, while this willl hurt, it is not a "canary in the coal mine" type scenario:
One year HYG
One year HYG
FWIW, my models did something I have never seen them do. The divergence between the two SPX models is the highest I have ever seen. It is as if it is telling that we are in a kind of Heisenberg Uncertainty, which can go either way. One model is pointing much higher, the other much lower, with the SPX almost exactly in the middle. Usually the discrepancy between them is logical. Not anymore. My oil models had this divergence in them well before the SPX model, but I chose to ignore them (my hedge was not nearly enough) 
Since until very recently they were both saying higher, I positioned myself that way. Ouch.
Since until very recently they were both saying higher, I positioned myself that way. Ouch.
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