Black Every Day?

Do you really believe the EURUSD story? Two year chart.

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There is every indication that the world is slowly creeping into recession. Even China's 7% growth is now in danger. The FED probably agrees that QE may work in emergency situations that caused the great recession, but in run of the mill recessions QE is almost certainly out of the question. What is left [when rates were not normalized to begin with] ?

The Fed's next move? Negative interest rates

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/23/the-feds-next-move-negative-interest-rates-commentary.html
 
In a way, Schiff is a bit blind to the whole game that is the market. Its DNA is to camouflage its true performance character over time. So that this happens in all of finance is really no surprise.

Think about the way that indeces work. Take the DOW for example. It used to be composed to companies that are now bankrupt or nearly worthless. What replaces them? Stocks like Apple. So, the one goal of markets is not to reflect true value over time and to keep score of wins and loses. In fact, it is exactly the opposite. To hide losers from the index, and to continue to supply it with winners.If you replace "stocks" with "interest rates" and "indeces" with the "FED", it is the same game of obfuscation with different names to stand in. The whole idea is to keep the illusion going as long as possible. And since human beings have a very poor understanding of longer time periods, they will believe just about anything over the short term, say on the order of a quarter of their lifetimes. The market needs a constant supply of inexperienced young people to continue to fuel The Matrix. Except this matrix turns people not into a battery, but into an investor full of hope.

So, the market as a reflection of accumulated wealth over time is a myth, and therefore a terrible measure or economic well being. It all depends on what your starting point and ending point of investment is/was, and whether you were lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time.

Where are all the people's yatch? Or should I be more humble and just hope for: where is the American Dream?
 
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After the FED statement, the SPX forward (or very approximately the spread between futures and cash) is having a hard time repricing. Before the statement is was ~10.0. Now it is oscillating between ~7 and ~10.

As interest rates go higher, the futures are worth more, taking into consideration that futures expire at cash. So time value also counts. And yet, the FED gave no indication that it wants to raise rates. Usually futures lead cash, but cash may have taken a harder hit than futures. Very likely, the markets are interpreting it as the FED seeing considerable risk of recession probabilities.

Alternatively, people were expecting an even more dovish FED, meaning talks of QE or negative IRs. Seriously?

God only knows....
 
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