I am not able to comment on those markets, as I don't have models for any of them.
Cheap money is the trend around the world these days, so if someone said to me, ASX200 is floating on clouds I wouldn't be surprised one bit.
An impending crash? I believe that there is always an impending crash in some market around the world. Thing is, markets that don't have hard deliverables underneath them can go to valuations that don't make sense, and they don't make sense for an astonishing amount of time. Anyone that was around the tech bubble around 1998-2000 would have told you countless of stories of stocks like Pets.com that posted losses every quarter and had valuations higher than companies with real product and real customers and real dividends.
These days, I would never short a market that can have valuations based on what people think something is worth i.e, stocks. I would wait until it tells you it is right to short it. That means you miss the first 10% always. Then just sell the pullbacks. Similar to what people do in bull markets. Don't buy high, buy pullbacks away from the trend. Or if you must gamble, use option spreads with a locked in stop loss. There are old traders on wall street, and there are bold traders on wall street, but there are no old bold traders on wall street. Of course, I am talking about myself since I like quantitative models. If you are an amazing psychologist and understand the human condition, you might be able to gauge a market by simply putting your ear to the ground. I am not able to do it.
Commodities are a bit different since those are finite resources that are deliverable, and numbers matter.
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