BKuerbs adds salt

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko
YOU NEED A POSITIVE EXPECTANCY SYSTEM....PERIOD.

Originally posted by BKuerbs
May I add a little salt here? Even when you have a system with a positive expectancy you are going to lose in the long run.

The positive side: this run may last longer than you live or care to trade.

Source:William Gallacher "Winner Take All" and Nassim Taleb "Fooled by Randomness". Or think about series of winning/losing trades

Theory? Look at the rate Hedge Funds do disappear.

Have fun

Bernd Kuerbs

any comments? that's quite the accusation..

 

[aphexcoil]

Do you want someone to blow sunshine up your ass and tell you he is wrong? Who knows if this is all random or not, but there are obviously people making money. If they consistently make money randomly for years, then I guess randomness isn't as random as we once thought.

I'm waiting for the author to come out with his second edition, "Fooled by Chaos." Should be another quick read.

 

[rtharp]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko


any comments? that's quite the accusation..

if your position sizing per trade is too large you can easily blow out.

Also systems /markets change and you need to realize this. A system that works in a 20 year bull market won't work in a bear market.

Robert