‘Bitter pill to swallow’: Omicron is a horrible dilemma for China

[themickey]

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...rrible-dilemma-for-china-20211208-p59fot.html

Opinion
‘Bitter pill to swallow’: Omicron is a horrible dilemma for China
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard December 8, 2021

Omicron is the end of the road for China’s zero-COVID policy. The Communist Party cannot plausibly suppress a variant that spreads with lightning speed through asymptomatic cases that escape surveillance.

Any such attempt would probably fail. Even if total suppression could be achieved, the social, economic, and strategic costs of trying to do the near impossible would become prohibitive over time. It would no longer be rational.

China has had to deal with scattered cases of the Delta variant for months, usually brought in by flight crews, or leaking across the border from Myanmar, Russia, or Korea.

“They have always been able to catch cases early and crush them. But Omicron looks so transmissible that it might evade their controls. They can’t keep it out completely,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.

My assumption is that the regime will be overwhelmed by events eventually, forced to follow Singapore, Korea, and Australia in switching to a policy of endemic containment - and relying on the propaganda department and totalitarian instruments of media control to get away with the volte-face.

“They still have a good story to tell. They can say that the rest of the world failed and because of that China will have to live with the virus,” said Mr Williams........
Continues.....
........"On current trends, Beijing is now less likely to pull ahead of its peer competitor in comprehensive power by the end of the decade. Importantly, this change suggests that there is nothing inevitable about China’s rise in the world. Across the range of feasible outcomes, it appears unlikely China will ever be as dominant as the United States once was,” concluded the Lowy Institute.

This is a startling conclusion. Almost nobody would have predicted the superpower relegation of Xi Jinping’s China 18 months ago. The pandemic keeps deceiving.

Telegraph, London

 

[ipatent]

Anything they can't control, we can't control worse.

 

[MKTrader]

Anything they can't control, we can't control worse.

We don't need to control it. The symptoms are mild. Get a life. Or hide under a bed every time a a new variant is overhyped. Your choice.

 

[JSOP]

Oh no, China is imperfect just like the rest of us!! I thought they make people go into quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. How can there still be cases?

 

[JSOP]

We don't need to control it. The symptoms are mild. Get a life. Or hide under a bed every time a a new variant is overhyped. Your choice.

Yes we do. It's not this variant that's the problem. It's the next variant that it can mutate to that's the problem if we don't control this one. You can have cancer cells in your body but it has to be under control. Everything is about control. Get used to it. That's the reality.

 

[JSOP]

Continues.....
........"On current trends, Beijing is now less likely to pull ahead of its peer competitor in comprehensive power by the end of the decade. Importantly, this change suggests that there is nothing inevitable about China’s rise in the world. Across the range of feasible outcomes, it appears unlikely China will ever be as dominant as the United States once was,” concluded the Lowy Institute.

That was kinda obvious. Whoever was suggesting that China would be dominant with the next 10 years was either out to lunch or working for the CCP propaganda machine.

 

[themickey]

The kernel of the article was not so much about Omicron but this.......

Roger Garside, a former British diplomat in Beijing and author of books on Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping, said last year’s narrative of China as the runaway winner of the pandemic has been inverted.

What China does next has implications for commodity markets and the overall strength of global economic growth over the next year.Credit:Bloomberg

“The picture has turned radically against them. They’re in self-imposed isolation, with no route for the exit,” he said.

Mr Garfield said it epitomises the pitfalls of a totalitarian system. Such regimes look strong but the very tools of power at their disposal end up trapping them in a dysfunctional cul-de-sac.

Australia’s Lowy Institute said this week in its annual report on Asia’s balance of power that China has lost rank over the last year.

This is partly because wolf warrior policies have provoked a harder containment alliance led by the US; it is also because the pandemic has tarnished China’s image and inflicted further structural damage to the Chinese economy.

China’s recovery has sputtered out. The service sector has not regained its pre-COVID levels, and (true) GDP growth has been hovering near zero for the last two quarters.

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

That was kinda obvious. Whoever was suggesting that China would be dominant with the next 10 years was either out to lunch or working for the CCP propaganda machine.

you've been all over the places. just curious, are you holding a short position? probably, SPY ETF?

 

[JSOP]

you've been all over the places. just curious, are you holding a short position? probably, SPY ETF?

I trade according to what the market tells me but define "all over the places". As far as I know, I can only be in one place at a time.

 

[piezoe]

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...rrible-dilemma-for-china-20211208-p59fot.html

Opinion
‘Bitter pill to swallow’: Omicron is a horrible dilemma for China
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard December 8, 2021

Omicron is the end of the road for China’s zero-COVID policy. The Communist Party cannot plausibly suppress a variant that spreads with lightning speed through asymptomatic cases that escape surveillance.

Any such attempt would probably fail. Even if total suppression could be achieved, the social, economic, and strategic costs of trying to do the near impossible would become prohibitive over time. It would no longer be rational.

China has had to deal with scattered cases of the Delta variant for months, usually brought in by flight crews, or leaking across the border from Myanmar, Russia, or Korea.

“They have always been able to catch cases early and crush them. But Omicron looks so transmissible that it might evade their controls. They can’t keep it out completely,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.

My assumption is that the regime will be overwhelmed by events eventually, forced to follow Singapore, Korea, and Australia in switching to a policy of endemic containment - and relying on the propaganda department and totalitarian instruments of media control to get away with the volte-face.

“They still have a good story to tell. They can say that the rest of the world failed and because of that China will have to live with the virus,” said Mr Williams........
Continues.....
........"On current trends, Beijing is now less likely to pull ahead of its peer competitor in comprehensive power by the end of the decade. Importantly, this change suggests that there is nothing inevitable about China’s rise in the world. Across the range of feasible outcomes, it appears unlikely China will ever be as dominant as the United States once was,” concluded the Lowy Institute.

This is a startling conclusion. Almost nobody would have predicted the superpower relegation of Xi Jinping’s China 18 months ago. The pandemic keeps deceiving.

Telegraph, London

The contention that there are large numbers of asymptomatic cases is most likely false. Making matters worse, the reports of asymptomatic cases was initially and intentionally promulgated for political reasons.

Even those without any scientific training can understand that if so-called asymptomatic cases represent cases where the virus is found, but it has not successfully infected the host there will be no multiplication of he virus. Virus are not living "organisms" and can not reproduce without a host. Such asymptomatic cases will not be significant contributors to widespread dissemination of the virus.

The concept of asymptomatic "infections" has likely been bolstered by the sensitivity of rt-PCR*, which had never before found extensive use in any pandemic. The most likely explanation for newer reports of asymptomatic "infection" is that the exposure of those reported to be asymptomatic is slight and either the virus was not successful in infecting the host, or it was inactive, "dead" virus that was detected. It is also possible that the detection occurred early in the incubation period and there was insufficient follow-up and coordination of data. Some of those infected will have mild symptoms. It is unlikely, however, they will remain entirely asymptomatic if actually infected.

The other problem, and it contributed in a major way to early reports of many asymptomatic cases, stemmed from the widespread use -- and this may not have entirely stopped -- of simple but insufficiently specific antibody tests for Covid, which produced up to 50% false positives. In early U.S. reporting, these antibody test results were unaccountably intermingled with some of the rt-PCR data. This uncoordinated early data was so unreliable that in fact the CDC was unable to use it.

I continue to be highly skeptical of any report of an asymptomatic "infection", as such wording is an oxymoron. The problem in the modern internet age is that once erroneous news articles get quickly disseminated throughout the world, these articles are themselves like a virus that infects even those who ought to know better.

In the U.S., in particular, the necessary extent, uniformity and coordination of data collection was absent in the first months of the pandemic. There was chaos. We adopted a piecemeal, State by State approach to tackling the virus. To make matters still worse, the Administration actively interfered with the CDC's decision making. The U.S. served as a perfect example to the world of how not to deal with a pandemic.

_______________
*Theoretically a single virus particle can be detected, but of course sampling error is then huge.