Bitcoin vs Gold as a store of value

[johnarb]

Mate.. I have been putting my money where my mouth is and risking and investing for over 15 years... much of it in a professional environment. If you want to talk it up on a public forum by inflating the pros... I can talk it back down by showing the risks and cons.

By the way, I never said it's a scam... the idea was solid... it's just been taken beyond what it was supposed to do by people left and right creating other coins.. printing virtual money everywhere... basically giving anyone who can code the power to print.

I read the perfect analogy... if anyone could print paper money, it would soon collapse because it's just worth the paper it's printed on. Central banks have the monopoly of printing money, therefore the value is in the trust. So if everyone starts printing digital coins (like they have been for a while)... eventually it will just be worth the 0's and 1's it's printed on...

EDIT. I actually do think I said it was a scam... meaning the bulk of the ICO's

My friend, I failed at trading so not trying to compete with a professional trader. However, I bought bitcoin/cryptos in 2013 and risked my money knowing it could go to zero and currently reaping the rewards in the thousands of percent returns. Still holding as I still believe it's a better investment than the alternatives out there.

To address the other item you mentioned, anyone can create a Facebook or Google, and yet, those 2 are still #1 in their respective markets. Google even spent billions of $ to unseat Facebook with their Google + product product, and with all that resources, failed. Why? Metcalfe's law

Bitcoin is #1 yet many opinions say it shouldn't be and here I am defending bitcoin against bashers even if my crypto portfolio is less than 10% bitcoin (atm, it changes). I understand the market dynamics and Bitcoin is the gateway to all other financial networks, services, and markets and if bitcoin fails, the damage to all cryptocurrencies will be huge.

Good trading to you.

 

[johnarb]

Where did I say I was short Bitcoin? I believe that the long-term value of Bitcoin is 0. However, I have no idea how high it will go before it goes to zero. It's a completely speculative product.

I find it interesting how people get offended when one criticizes Bitcoin. If the hodlers really believed in it, then they would not feel the need to recruit new people by posting "buy Bitcoin" comments under completely unrelated Youtube videos about cars in a pathetic effort to prop up their speculative gamble so that they can get out before the damn thing collapses (not accusing johnarb of doing that, just pointing out another experience).

When people wish for bitcoin to become worthless and cause financial damage to holders of cryptos (myself included), it is only a natural reaction for me to want to wish the same for them and which is why I've been encouraging for the ones celebrating the recent sell off (on the bitcoin price thread) to short the CME futures and hold the position. I'm holding my long position in the underlying so I have capital at risk.

I have not bought any since the price was around $1000 and have not advised friends or families who ask me to buy bitcoin. When asked about an altcoin that they wish to purchase or what to purchase, I mention something which I think is good, but of course the ultimate decision with one's finances is with the person him/her self.

 

[JackRab]

My friend, I failed at trading so not trying to compete with a professional trader. However, I bought bitcoin/cryptos in 2013 and risked my money knowing it could go to zero and currently reaping the rewards in the thousands of percent returns. Still holding as I still believe it's a better investment than the alternatives out there.

Good trading to you.

Yeah I understand that... but just because you got in at the right time in something that was a bad investment... doesn't make it a good investment.

I don't short in a speculative bubble because I've seen what can happen... if some random penny stock can go up from 0.03 to 2.00... it can go to 10... or 50... it's usually the hype it gets while it goes up to 2 that gives it a boost and people start piling in because others say so. FOMO... it's still a penny stock. Look at HMNY, went up from 2.50 to 10 because of a good idea and takeover... then the hype started and it got an irrational boost to 33 which apparently was silly bc it's back at sub-10

 

[JackRab]

When people wish for bitcoin to become worthless and cause financial damage to holders of cryptos (myself included), it is only a natural reaction for me to want to wish the same for them and which is why I've been encouraging for the ones celebrating the recent sell off (on the bitcoin price thread) to short the CME futures and hold the position. I'm holding my long position in the underlying so I have capital at risk.

I have not bought any since the price was around $1000 and have not advised friends or families who ask me to buy bitcoin. When asked about an altcoin that they wish to purchase or what to purchase, I mention something which I think is good, but of course the ultimate decision with one's finances is with the person him/her self.

But if you've bought at below 1.000... then surely the financial damage is limited to 0. I assume you've at least covered your investment? If something goes 5 or 10 fold... you should get at least the invested amount out. And if you're aware of the risk to zero... then you accept it fully I assume?

It's the same for people who put all their money in one stock... if you're not diversified then the risk to zero is always there and anyone who does that isn't thinking straight IMO. Same for people that blow up their accounts because they take 100:1 leverage...

 

[ET180]

When people wish for bitcoin to become worthless and cause financial damage to holders of cryptos (myself included), it is only a natural reaction for me to want to wish the same for them and which is why I've been encouraging for the ones celebrating the recent sell off (on the bitcoin price thread) to short the CME futures and hold the position. I'm holding my long position in the underlying so I have capital at risk.

I can understand the impulsive reaction to defend your investment, but it seems very fragile. If you really believe in Bitcoin, you won't care about others declaring an opinion on it. Sure, if others are using bad logic support their conclusion, then yes, call out that logic and explain the logical error so others can see it. But if someone calls it a bubble and claims that the long-term value should be 0, if you really believe in the product then whatever others say won't have any long-term effect. Because the if fundamentals are correct, when someone sells, someone else gets to buy at a lower price. If it's fundamentally the best product, there will ultimately be more buying than selling and the product will win (most of the time...a few exceptions for example the Sony Betamax vs. VHS, maybe Windows vs. Mac). Now if there's lots of competing products and one's favored product does not hold a distinctive advantage other than being first...well, then maybe it's really just a popularity contest and there's no way of telling who will win that.

 

[JackRab]

To address the other item you mentioned, anyone can create a Facebook or Google, and yet, those 2 are still #1 in their respective markets. Google even spent billions of $ to unseat Facebook with their Google + product product, and with all that resources, failed. Why? Metcalfe's law

I've said it before... those are companies that generate something... and eventually turns that into revenue for the shareholders. I'm not saying that blockchain isn't worth anything. Or even the companies that have sprung to facilitate anything to do with blockchain or bitcoin etc. They all generate something... and the owners (shareholders) make money on that.

Companies and people that provide that service are valuable... not just a coin. The coin has value in it's usability... USD has value because it is used to service the US-GDP, as well as some other things, being the main global currency. EUR has value because it services the EURO-area GDP. Zimbabwe-dollar has value because it services the Zimbabwe economy... which is shit and therefore it has no value.

Sure, Bitcoin when stable could make a difference to Zimbabwe and Venezuela and the likes... and it might make things easier in the short run. But it's not being used as such and it will never be used as such, because no country would allow something like that to have the official currency status in the long term... since it opens the door for other currencies to compete for that status... therefore losing the monopoly that an official currency has and the trust will go with it. the fact is... Bitcoin Is Not A Limited Supply...

 

[johnarb]

But if you've bought at below 1.000... then surely the financial damage is limited to 0. I assume you've at least covered your investment? If something goes 5 or 10 fold... you should get at least the invested amount out. And if you're aware of the risk to zero... then you accept it fully I assume?

It's the same for people who put all their money in one stock... if you're not diversified then the risk to zero is always there and anyone who does that isn't thinking straight IMO. Same for people that blow up their accounts because they take 100:1 leverage...

Yes, I have already cashed out more than my original investment, but I'm still in the position and that doesn't mean I do not deserve the current profits or future profits.

 

[johnarb]

Both of you are saying the same thing that bitcoin is not worth the valuation and this is a trading site where you can express your belief by taking a position in the (CME futures) markets. When you say you're afraid to short a bubble or this and that, then you're just saying that bitcoin is worth hundreds of billions of $. Why would you be worried to load up on a short position now and keep adding if you truly believe it's worth much less (or zero)? $11,500 for a shitty asset seems like an opportunity of a lifetime. Most shitty assets priced at $100 or $200 would be a screaming short.

I'm holding. I make no excuses and I do not get swayed by negative opinions of others.

 

[ET180]

Both of you are saying the same thing that bitcoin is not worth the valuation and this is a trading site where you can express your belief by taking a position in the (CME futures) markets. When you say you're afraid to short a bubble or this and that, then you're just saying that bitcoin is worth hundreds of billions of $. Why would you be worried to load up on a short position now and keep adding if you truly believe it's worth much less (or zero)? $11,500 for a shitty asset seems like an opportunity of a lifetime. Most shitty assets priced at $100 or $200 would be a screaming short.

I'm holding. I make no excuses and I do not get swayed by negative opinions of others.

As I said above, I don't know how high Bitcoin could go and for how long. It's a highly speculative and very volatile product. If I short it now at $11,xxx, could it retest a previous high and be worth $19,500 in a month? Sure. It could. It trades like a penny stock. Would I want to have around a 70% loss in one month even if I believe that I'll eventually have a 80-90% profit eventually? No. That's not my style of trading and why I don't short it. So does that mean that I'm bullish in the long-term on bitcoin? For the reasons mentioned previously, no. I just think the mentality of trying to claim that people cannot express a dissenting opinion (backed by valid statements) unless they are invested is fragile. But congrats on your nice gains and invest however you wish.

 

[d08]

Tulip bulbs were a store of value for a while too. Btc's real value is in the black market supporting money laundering and tax-evasion.

It's true, just like the alternative currencies of the 90s. Chinese have been having great difficulty taking their often ill-gotten gains out of the country, bitcoin came to rescue.

Bitcoin's real use_case is as a store of value and hedge against massive printing of fiat by CB's worldwide. The currency functionality is a very nice bonus, imho

And how is it any better than gold then? Gold is great for storing value. Gold will be the same gold 50 years from now. Most likely your current choice of Crypto won't even exist 50 years from now.

What I'm reading is that converting bitcoin to usable currencies takes 3 days now, that's the same as an international wire transfer. It's not horrible but hardly efficient.