Baron
ET Founder
As a general announcement, I have created a Bitcoin forum here on ET and moved this thread and many others into it. 
Thanks for your participation
Thanks for your participation
Bitcoin thread anyone?
- Thread starter COB
- Start date
Quote from newguy05:
hah bitcoin has its own forum on ET... there is no stopping it now
Finally! Official recognition!
Done and done. It has been following the typical bubble burst pattern and in the following days it touches the bottom price right after the crash. I think we will get a little bounce here (10-15$) then we continue down to 150 and below....
Edit: Actually a 181 to 190 bounce already has happened in the last few hours, so at this point it could just keep dropping...
P.S.: These are my broker's prices....
Since I haven't posted over the weekend, here is a nice analysis from Reddit why everything bitcoin is moving toward China:
"I've lived in China and everybody there is super bearish about their economy and growth model in general. All the money for big infrastructure projects basically comes from financial repression -- meaning negative interest rates on your bank savings. Chinese people have not many channels to invest, that only leaves housing (already huge bubble) and bank's Wealth Management Products (WMPs), which are speculative short-term deposits with 5-10 per cent return rate. What do they speculate in? Mostly housing. Well, the whole economy is a big Ponzi scheme and due for a crash.
Now, here is why Bitcoin is so interesting for Chinese and why I think that it will continue to drive the current bull market. For one, it allows RMB to US or EUR conversion. Don't forget that RMB is not freely convertible and it is very difficult to bring your cash abroad. People regularly get caught for that. There is a whole illegal money-transfer network to move money across the border called "fei qian". Bitcoin offers the same service with a lot less risk involved and is almost free-of-charge. On top of that, it can also be seen as an investment (Gold 2.0), even better than some dubious real-estate in a Chinese ghost city ("Ordos").
With so much liquidity in the Chinese economy, I can imagine that investors are starting to see Bitcoin as a whole new asset class for their portfolio, which in turn further drives the price up, attracting more media coverage & investors, and so forth. To sum it up, Bitcoin could be the exit strategy for rich Chinese scrambling to secure their money and China will be the motor for price increase in the coming months/years. However, the Chinese government could at some point attempt to crackdown on Bitcoin exchanges or rule them illegal (precedent set with "QQ Coins"). Good luck with that, but on the other hand the Chinese state has strong control over the internet, at least they could make it difficult to convert RMB to Bitcoins.
Further readings on Chinese crash: http://qz.com/139733/here-are-the-signs-that-chinas-lehman-moment-is-unavoidable/"
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Also: China Trades 58k btc, rest of the World 34k
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=319898.0
"I've lived in China and everybody there is super bearish about their economy and growth model in general. All the money for big infrastructure projects basically comes from financial repression -- meaning negative interest rates on your bank savings. Chinese people have not many channels to invest, that only leaves housing (already huge bubble) and bank's Wealth Management Products (WMPs), which are speculative short-term deposits with 5-10 per cent return rate. What do they speculate in? Mostly housing. Well, the whole economy is a big Ponzi scheme and due for a crash.
Now, here is why Bitcoin is so interesting for Chinese and why I think that it will continue to drive the current bull market. For one, it allows RMB to US or EUR conversion. Don't forget that RMB is not freely convertible and it is very difficult to bring your cash abroad. People regularly get caught for that. There is a whole illegal money-transfer network to move money across the border called "fei qian". Bitcoin offers the same service with a lot less risk involved and is almost free-of-charge. On top of that, it can also be seen as an investment (Gold 2.0), even better than some dubious real-estate in a Chinese ghost city ("Ordos").
With so much liquidity in the Chinese economy, I can imagine that investors are starting to see Bitcoin as a whole new asset class for their portfolio, which in turn further drives the price up, attracting more media coverage & investors, and so forth. To sum it up, Bitcoin could be the exit strategy for rich Chinese scrambling to secure their money and China will be the motor for price increase in the coming months/years. However, the Chinese government could at some point attempt to crackdown on Bitcoin exchanges or rule them illegal (precedent set with "QQ Coins"). Good luck with that, but on the other hand the Chinese state has strong control over the internet, at least they could make it difficult to convert RMB to Bitcoins.
Further readings on Chinese crash: http://qz.com/139733/here-are-the-signs-that-chinas-lehman-moment-is-unavoidable/"
-----------------------------
Also: China Trades 58k btc, rest of the World 34k
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=319898.0
Weekly update, bitcoin marches on. Going into this week, the analysis is positive because bitcoin has been mentioned in the media and more and more people are aware of it, thus new money should be pouring in.
What is even more important that the Chinese are becoming the real driver of price. BTC China is now top exchange after overtaking MtGox USD in 30 day volume. (MtGox is still #1 overall)
One strange thing is that BTC China has no fees, just spreads, that probably also helps with the volume...
What is even more important that the Chinese are becoming the real driver of price. BTC China is now top exchange after overtaking MtGox USD in 30 day volume. (MtGox is still #1 overall)
One strange thing is that BTC China has no fees, just spreads, that probably also helps with the volume...
interesting,
yes China is flooded with cheap money. Between corruption, local scams and the foreign capital inflow, it's one giant bubble waiting to burst, not different from what Europe or the US used to be.
not sure about BitCoin. I thought they had shutdown the service. An exit strategy for middle class Chinese to lower their RMB exposure ? don't think so, have to buy that new BMW and LV handbags first so they can show off to their neighbors.
Now you are just calling them idiots. First, not every upper class chinese is a show off, second, if they have access money, (and they trust bitcoin) it is better to keep it in bitcoin, than in RMB or some other risky local investments. we all have seen the phantom cities built by stupid investors' money...