Bitcoin sold off about $5000 in minutes...

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johnarb said:
Can't believe the level of trader incompetence here on ET
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Speak for yourself. I can't believe you are not selling the highs and buying back the sell offs. And eventually there will be a high where there are NO MORE new highs. The crack last week (35>28) showed that there was already weakness in this rally.

I honestly hope you sold around 40K, but it doesn't seem to be the case. So you will learn what happens to bag holders when they hold all the way down...

Here is an advice. Find a Kagi chart and use the hourly, whenever it changes color, change position. It turned red at 39K yesterday... Wanted to post about it, but people don't believe me, so...

Store of value, my ass. (Sorry, had to do it.) Since I am a nice guy, here is a live Kagi for you, because it is not easy to find:

https://www.investing.com/charts/live-charts
 
narafa said:
I am not sure if your analysis is correct or not, but since 3 weeks back, I can clearly see a typical "Time Arbitrage" happening in Bitcoin spot against the futures market.

To elaborate, imagine that you have massive buy orders for Bitcoin spot over the weekend, what do you do? You load up on CME futures on Friday prior to the close and then start executing your spot orders during the weekend, pushing the price up nicely by like %20-%30 and when the markets open on Sunday night, you are simply sitting on a nice profit from your long future contracts.

Who takes the other side of the trade in the futures? Probably the Dealers and I am sure they are not happy with that because essentially they can't hedge their positions during the weekend.

CME will have to do something about that or else the futures volumes will dry up or simply the prices between spot & futures will widen (Creating another arbitrage opportunity).
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Nobody cares about the CME. It's just a proxy for the old boys. Markets trades 24/7/365, futures, options, repos, swaps, all you want in size.

The move is spot driven and we'll see if sentiment changes when we look at on chain data, vol, skew, term structure and forward curve after today.

Right now it looks like people are gobbling up everything they can....
 
BTC / Gold Spot ratio chart:-

BTC XAU.png
 
I am in BTC quite as a newb from $17500 dip and sold some at over $40000. IMHO you cannot just buy and hold because of these insane swings you must be in and out while holding some. You will come up as a winner on the whole. I have stopped my weekly auto-buy at coinbase.com and put in some bottom fishing orders, of which two of them hit this morning.
I am a firm believer in this for the long haul but $17500 was just a recent time. There is no reason that we cannot test it. If not all the better, keep buying the dips and sell some on the extreme runs (overextended bars) always reverse.
 
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