Bitcoin sold off about $5000 in minutes...

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RainMaker3000 said:
This is not your typical bull/bear market "issue", the more vol the higher the return rate. It showed a parabolic move in less than a month, its only healthy for it to dip to 20k then build a nice base before making a run to new highs...In my honest opinion, the dip to 20K will be a test of strength for the FOMO buyers...
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That's very fair analysis. I'm sorry but I will have to disagree with you in the current time. If we're talking purely technicals, yes, I'll have nothing to counter your argument. However, the numbers are published by GBTC, and they cannot lie or make up these numbers or the SEC will go after them.

Are the reported numbers from PayPal and Square trustworthy? I don't really know but I see no reason that they would be off by any significant amount.

There's simply too much demand for bitcoins hence pushing the price to this level above $30K and that demand is going to keep the price high as the number of coins supplies on the exchanges keep dwindling.

I only mentioned these 3 entities responsible for the buying demand. I did not mention institutions or UHNW or hedge funds buying up bitcoins (fomo in that space).

[Heard on CNBC that this bitcoin upmove is 3 SD even for bitcoin that is very volatile, so I'm not completely oblivious that it's been a very frothy bitcoin/cryptos trading environment]
 
johnarb said:
That's very fair analysis. I'm sorry but I will have to disagree with you in the current time. If we're talking purely technicals, yes, I'll have nothing to counter your argument. However, the numbers are published by GBTC, and they cannot lie or make up these numbers or the SEC will go after them.

Are the reported numbers from PayPal and Square trustworthy? I don't really know but I see no reason that they would be off by any significant amount.

There's simply too much demand for bitcoins hence pushing the price to this level above $30K and that demand is going to keep the price high as the number of coins supplies on the exchanges keep dwindling.

I only mentioned these 3 entities responsible for the buying demand. I did not mention institutions or UHNW or hedge funds buying up bitcoins (fomo in that space).

[Heard on CNBC that this bitcoin upmove is 3 SD even for bitcoin that is very volatile, so I'm not completely oblivious that it's been a very frothy bitcoin/cryptos trading environment]
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All outcomes are possible, I suggested just one as I could be wrong, You are correct there is decent demand but the market is thin on both sides. It might settle around 30k, but my theory is based on it correcting with the stock market/Nasdaq...
 
today BTC broke the day range record.
day/night is not over yet. as of now,
today's range is 6200 points.
the 2nd biggest day range is 5700 points.
 
johnarb said:
I don't know why start this thread just because bitcoin went down over $5000 when there's already a Bitcoin price thread discussion


Anyway, here's my 2 satoshis on what's going on on this fine Sunday (US time).

Some bitcoin powerful forces (whales?) are taking advantage of Bitcoin/Cryptos time versus Traditional Business Ops time. What do I mean? They are hunting stop loss orders. In a few hours, they will stop doing this. They may already have stopped which is why bitcoin has bounced about $3K from the low.

View attachment 248699


Why did they stop??? Very simple, they don't want to be caught with their shorts down, pun intended. When normal business hours starts, PayPal and Square will start buying a bunch of bitcoins and GBTC will start buying a bunch of bitcoins. Those guys will be awake, back to the grindstone and do what they've been doing, buying a bunch of bitcoins for their customers.

Remember, PayPal and Square are buying way more than 900 bitcoins every single day, much more than 900 bitcoins being mined.

Listen to ET (should be AT for Amateur Traders) who are calling for a crash to $20K and lose your shirt. Bitcoin is in a bull market until it's not. Trade your own plan, don't listen to me or anyone else.
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I am not sure if your analysis is correct or not, but since 3 weeks back, I can clearly see a typical "Time Arbitrage" happening in Bitcoin spot against the futures market.

To elaborate, imagine that you have massive buy orders for Bitcoin spot over the weekend, what do you do? You load up on CME futures on Friday prior to the close and then start executing your spot orders during the weekend, pushing the price up nicely by like %20-%30 and when the markets open on Sunday night, you are simply sitting on a nice profit from your long future contracts.

Who takes the other side of the trade in the futures? Probably the Dealers and I am sure they are not happy with that because essentially they can't hedge their positions during the weekend.

CME will have to do something about that or else the futures volumes will dry up or simply the prices between spot & futures will widen (Creating another arbitrage opportunity).
 
Scataphagos said:
That's when most investors do most things most often. :)
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The ETN was actually dead in terms of volume until November 2020 (When the bull run in Bitcoin started), only then it started seeing volume coming in.

The tendency of people to counter trade clear trends never stops to amaze me.
 
BTC has been riding (and often outside) the BB2 SD, but it hasn't been beyond the BB 3SD since late Dec breakout:-
BTC 3SD.png
 
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