Bitcoin Price Thread

orbit23 said:
There is one of the biggest conferences coming up; Token2049 in Singapore on 18th, as well as the FOMC and Trump launching his shitcoin.

Also full moon on the 18th and end of summer a few days later (the cyclical nature).


Is this everything the bulls can come up with? Bitcoin bulls at this point lack both the horns and balls.

What's going on? Are we running out of grannies willing to buy into the ponzi scheme?
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At least after the full moon your sanity should improve a bit.
 
The only thing saving the Bitcoiners at this point is the stock market.

As soon as there is the slightest smudge of weakness in stocks, say bye Felicia!
 
betcashrun said:
The probability given by the market to hit $100k by 12/31/2024 is rather 6.4% (binary call approximated by a vertical spread using the implied vol of the BTC future ETF).
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I'm not an expert on options but I had a position from 2 years ago on MSTR that was down 90% from $27k investment to $2.3k at the low in October/Sept 2023 and went on to do a come back all the way to over $120k (cashed out at over $60k value)

(used some of the profits for the next play below)

I had a position on MSTR calls 6 month duration that was down 85% from $40ksh to $6.5k m2m value at the low went to over $1M m2m value within 2 months (cashed out at over $700k profit)

When I say position above, those are multiple call options, I'm just giving the exact position values

Of course on both instances the delta was very low at the low maybe 5 basis points or lower, and close to 1 when it went ditm

Just a comment on IV you mentioned, both plays were probably in the order of a six-sigma event, no?

$2.3k to $120k is over 5000% and it happened within a short time Oct-Jan

$6.5k to $1M is over 15,000% and it happened within 2 months Jan-March

My comment is that extrapolating probabilities outcomes based on IV or delta is probably not going to be accurate in the real world

For example in the first mstr call options position which was initiated in the middle of a bear market June of 2022, the greeks would be far different during the bull market

Which goes to a related situation on the 2nd mstr call options position as mstr NAV premium kept expanding as bitcoin kept going up, forcing hedge players to short mstr and buy bitcoin thinking it would compress,

it did not, it's at the highest premium mstr share price to NAV bitcoin treasury at the moment

Which leads me to my last point regarding price of anything... I've been fortunate to experience too many bubbles, since it's frequent in crypto assets...

When you cite those numbers as they relate to probabilities of $100k/btc occurring before eoy, I believe they are a picture of what the current price movements have been for the past 12 months, easily 5 months of those have been during the doldrum market period (Sell in May and go Away)

What I'm trying to say is that there is a price reflexivity that happens during periods of high NGU (numbers go up) or another way to say it is during FOMO periods

As price goes up, the more people buy ,the faster the price moves, the more people buy...

It happened with NVDA recently, happened in DeFi summer cryptos, happened in NFT's, happened in L1's, bitcoin, solana, ethereum, ftm, happened in meme coins, pepe, bonk, doge, shiba inu

With bitcoin, it's also got the Veblen premium as the price goes higher, the wealthy want it more for their SoV allocation similar to collectibles, arts, paintings



johnarb said:
The previous position had a range of $2.3k (lowest) to $$118k (highest) in about 18 months time (5,000%)

If I'm correct, this current options position could go from $6.5k (lowest) to $1M (highest) in 1/3rd of the time, 6 months (15,000%)

3 times bigger move in 1/3rd the time, sound doable :D

That would be wild, lol, putting it on here coz no one would believe it if it happens when bitcoin goes to $100k within 6 months and the second order effect on the MSTR share price


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SunTrader said:
All I see ATM short term is a lot of resistance and momo to the downside.
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recency bias

The past 5 months are usually choppy with a downward bias

Things are about to change starting as early as this week (Fed meeting and interest rate cut)

  • A flood of incoming liquidity
  • A strong period for all investments Q4
  • new bitcoin supply has dramatically decreased by half the past 5 months
  • Put all together, even if the demand returns to the same as the first quarter of this year, the supply has been reduced which will result in a very strong price upward movement

Two weeks to Uptober, then Moonvember then Mooncember

I will not post the chart of the previous bitcoin halvings Q4 results, let's just wait and see
 
The forecast, illustrated
upload_2024-9-16_17-7-38.png
 
Still holding onto my plan of refusing to add any more deltas this month to the main trading account. This week we have Fed Minutes which 'could' add a lot of fear/greed to the wind-gage, so I'm keeping the ship steady as she sails for now.
 
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