No you obviously don't. We haven't even seen the real FOMOs yet.
Bitcoin Price Thread
- Thread starter Magna
- Start date
I agree. But the retail is not buying into it. The retail interest is low.
I posted a video awhile ago, when the guy said something about Bitcoin on the stadium and he got BOOED HARD.
The normies intuitively understand those are ponzi scam coins.
There is no more suckers to buy into the ponzi scheme.
However Tether keeps pushing the price up because if it goes down they all go bust.
The suckers buying now are the ETF funds. And they only buy when price goes up. So tether prints, price goes up, and boomer ETF buyers FOMO in.
Fink is a big time sucker also. He runs the DEI policy, he is bankrupting himself and everyone else on the Ukraine bet and now he is also betting on Bitcoin.
I posted a video awhile ago, when the guy said something about Bitcoin on the stadium and he got BOOED HARD.
The normies intuitively understand those are ponzi scam coins.
There is no more suckers to buy into the ponzi scheme.
However Tether keeps pushing the price up because if it goes down they all go bust.
The suckers buying now are the ETF funds. And they only buy when price goes up. So tether prints, price goes up, and boomer ETF buyers FOMO in.
Fink is a big time sucker also. He runs the DEI policy, he is bankrupting himself and everyone else on the Ukraine bet and now he is also betting on Bitcoin.
The retail is the FOMO, eg. dumb money.
Up to now, it was mainly institutional buying. But now you will see the retail participation in earnest. They're always late to the party.
I believe the (paper hands) retail are still scorched from FTX. But there's a safer bet in town now, so they're leveraging up on Nvidia because... this time is different??
Retail has front-run the institutions for over a decade
The institutions were not allowed to buy bitcoin
But even a 12yo in Indonesia had some. I remember a Twitter video many years ago showing kids trick-or-treating and finding satoshis (bitcoin private key qr code) among the candies and getting excited
I remember a story of homeless people (in Los Angeles?) that were getting bitcoins (accumulated 6 bitcoins worth a few hundred $ at the time) and were using them to buy pizzas...
Retail dumb money are going to fomo? retail has been here... boomers and institutions are the the FOMO
The retail dumb money my friends and family never bought... and neither did most of ET
Okay, let me step back and restate differently.
It's the whales that have been buying and pushing up the current rally. Now the little fellows will be climbing aboard in the hopes of catching the runaway train.
How's that for a change?
BTW I ain't interested in the semantics. What I was really saying above was the rally has only begun and we have still ways to go
I think there is one critical difference here. Bitcoin isn't going to be like a stock that will eventually come back down, or whose price needs to always be justified by company performance. Granted, we seem to have these bitcoin cycles every 4 years, but I'm convinced that the cycles will be broken at some point.
If you believe that the reason to hold bitcoin is because everything else will go down in price against bitcoin (ie. bonds, gold, real estate, and many stocks), then there is much less of a worry that you will be the exit liquidity once the big boys all loaded up and are waiting to dump on someone. Yes, there have been huge retracements in the past, but what happens if bitcoin hits 100k or 200k, and that just makes more people buy and hold vs. providing enough selling pressure to significantly drop the price? What if we very quickly go up to some equilibrium level of 500-600k where we match the market cap of gold, and then stay there? If there isn't much of a dump, there won't be selling pressure.
Everyone who was dumping in the past did so because they understood cycles, wanted to take profits, in fiat, and then were hoping to scale back in lower. So what if we get a much faster depreciating dollar, and incredible buying interest, that price simply doesn't crash more than 10%? What if those sellers who sold now realize that there isn't going to be a 70% retracement, and now they are also buyers, getting back in? What if all the guys trading shit coins want to now buy bitcoin with their proceeds? How about all the leveraged bitcoin traders who are now ready to get off the rollercoaster and actually put their bitcoin into cold storage?
I can clearly see a point in time where you no longer sell bitcoin because you're worried about it going down, but only sell it for things you immediately need or big purchases that you have been saving up for. I think there is so much money right now in other crypto, in paper bitcoin and other derivatives, and its all going to eventually have to come back into the very small liquid supply.
I don't know when that happens and at what price, but I think that we have so far to go before bitcoin sucks out the financial premium from most other assets, and because of this, the narrative that retail will be dumped on is too risky to take seriously and be actually underexposed to bitcoin.
I don't understand your analogy (not being sarcastic), but if it makes sense to you and others, I'll leave it be
- bitcoin is over $60k, problem for retail this time around is price-anchoring
In 2013-2016, I was telling my friends at work, lunches everyday, btc price was around $100, ignored me, made fun of me ( friends being real friends all in good fun) especially when it crashed to less than $200 from $1,200...
I'll pinpoint several lunches in 2018-19, one of them would mention they should have listened to me and I distinctly remember saying it's not too late, price was $4-6k, but I could see the reactions, all disinterest, they wanted the price of $100
Unfortunately, that's what money does to our brains. Well, I doubt any of your former colleagues are laughing at you now.
But as a technician, this doesn't concern me that much. I'm sure price anchoring has it's place in the market and does impact investor's behavior, but I'm more interested in knowing where we are in a given rally. I know from experience that novice traders almost always come barging in about 2/3 into the rally. And the remaining 1/3 is purely a buying frenzy that usually ends with a loud bang. Just go back and look at the chart for yourself.
That said, we're not there yet. I think that will come once we trade above 73K.