Bitcoin Price Thread

johnarb said:
I am sorry, Baron. It will not happen again
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johnarb said:
View attachment 342968



Actually, deaddog used "guarantee... get your money back" and risk-free to describe the US treasuries and used volatility to compare the risk vs Bitcoin which I disproved all points albeit in a colorful way

It is not hindsight when deaddog claims the US treasuries are risk-free and "guarantee to get your money back" today, when we have evidence to the contrary

Tell me, How much would $100k invested in the US 10yr treasury in 2020 be worth today if needs to be sold?

An asset that boasts the most liquidity and market depth, or are you going to argue that it's not a loss until it has been taken, something that is always used against Bitcoin

The yield started at 50 basis points in 2020 and now there's almost half the time has passed on those 10yr treasuries

On the subject of volatility, do you think the price of those 10yr treasuries purchased in 2020 will go back to its price? i.e. the FFR would have to go to negative for that to happen

Those 10yr treasuries had extreme volatility to the downside but has no chance to go up as government bonds do not trade in that manner

On the same subject of risk wrt Bitcoin volatility, there is a sharpe-ratio that shows Bitcoin volatility is not that risky as you get paid with the returns very high CAGR

No, it is not hindsight, but now I wasted my time as always having to educate deaddog and apparently you are also uneducated

Your bias blinds you from the evidence. Fact check everything I said on here and refute them
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Can we not clutter the Bitcoin price thread with bickering, thus taking focus away from the reality that you all are in the presence of likely the greatest price projection of all time! Especially considering back then most were calling for 100k...while I was saying 50ks before 100ks? :)

(See my lost post)
 
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johnarb said:
View attachment 342968



Actually, deaddog used "guarantee... get your money back" and risk-free to describe the US treasuries and used volatility to compare the risk vs Bitcoin which I disproved all points albeit in a colorful way

It is not hindsight when deaddog claims the US treasuries are risk-free and "guarantee to get your money back" today, when we have evidence to the contrary

Tell me, How much would $100k invested in the US 10yr treasury in 2020 be worth today if needs to be sold?

An asset that boasts the most liquidity and market depth, or are you going to argue that it's not a loss until it has been taken, something that is always used for Bitcoin

The yield started at 50 basis points in 2020 and now there's almost half the time has passed on those 10yr treasuries

On the subject of volatility, do you think the price of those 10yr treasuries purchased in 2020 will go back to its price? i.e. the FFR would have to go to negative for that to happen

Those 10yr treasuries had extreme volatility to the downside but has no chance to go up as government bonds do not trade in that manner

On the same subject of risk wrt Bitcoin volatility, there is a sharpe-ratio that shows Bitcoin volatility is not that risky as you get paid with the returns very high CAGR

No, it is not hindsight, but now I wasted my time as always having to educate deaddog and apparently you are also uneducated

Your bias blinds you from the evidence. Fact check everything I said on here and refute them
More...
The point is that a bond guarantees the principal to be returned, along with accrued interest, if held to maturity. Sometimes the safe thing may not be the best thing, but it is this assurance that the typical bond investor is probably seeking. He may have other tranches of his portfolio in more volatile assets, but clearly the bond component serves a purpose because it is there. I doubt that when those bonds mature that the proceeds will be placed into haywire cryptos. Perhaps those same investors already have some exposure to crypto in other components of their portfolio, but I don't think that matured bonds will be replaced with crypto. To think so is wishful thinking by dyed-in-the-wool crypto bros such as yourself.
 
wxytrader said:
Can we not clutter the Bitcoin price thread with bickering taking focus away from the reality that I just posted probably the greatest price projection of all time...especially considering at the time most were calling for 100k...and I was saying 50ks before 100ks? :)

(See my lost post)
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For a proud owner of a (2008) Lambo, you sure act like a teenager yet to get his driver's permit.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
The point is that a bond guarantees the principal to be returned, along with accrued interest, if held to maturity. Sometimes the safe thing may not be the best thing, but it is this assurance that the typical bond investor is probably seeking. He may have other tranches of his portfolio in more volatile assets, but clearly the bond component serves a purpose because it is there. I doubt that when those bonds mature that the proceeds will be placed into haywire cryptos. Perhaps those same investors already have some exposure to crypto in other components of their portfolio, but I don't think that matured bonds will be replaced with crypto. To think so is wishful thinking by dyed-in-the-wool crypto bros such as yourself.
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English is my second language but I can tell time and I can read English,

deaddog used the words "guarantee .... get your money back" and risk-free TODAY to describe US treasuries or government bonds

You did not answer how much $100k invested in 10yr treasuries in 2020 would be worth today if sold on the market today?

I will tell you now, that kind of loss is not a definition of risk-free
 
Frederick Foresight said:
Hindsight Harold has spoken!
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lol, ok you lost the argument and now name-calling,

No, it is not hindsight, I was not the one that described US treasuries as risk-free TODAY

but the DATA THAT WE HAVE SAYS THEY ARE VERY RISKY

Call me another name again, but the DATA does not change
 
Frederick Foresight said:
For a proud owner of a (2008) Lambo, you sure act like a teenager yet to get his driver's permit.
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New Lotus Emira on deck...its arrived FINALLY...I just have to figure out a way to pay for it. :)

Update: I just loaded up on Jul5 BITO 24.5 calls @ .09!!!???
(should have got in yesterday but we'll see.)

johnarb said:
lol, ok you lost the argument and now name-calling,

No, it is not hindsight, I was not the one that described US treasuries as risk-free TODAY

but the DATA THAT WE HAVE SAYS THEY ARE VERY RISKY

Call me another name again, but the DATA does not change
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Why are we talking about bonds? This is supposed to be a forum for elite traders. What's $100,000 going to get you on 5% $416 a month? You could make more money selling hot dogs. :)
 
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johnarb said:
lol, ok you lost the argument and now name-calling,

No, it is not hindsight, I was not the one that described US treasuries as risk-free TODAY

but the DATA THAT WE HAVE SAYS THEY ARE VERY RISKY

Call me another name again, but the DATA does not change
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We are not even arguing about the same thing.

johnarb said:
English is my second language
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Apparently, so is thinking.

Go buy more crypto.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
We are not even arguing about the same thing.


Apparently, so is thinking.

Go buy more crypto.
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And yet you refuse to tell us how much $100k invested in 2020 on risk-free 10yr US Treasuries are worth at the market today?

Just so you know, there are retirees advised to go into bonds for 80% of their portfolio for safety,

What would you tell the retirees of 2020 and 2021 that have a medical emergency today and need to pay bills and need to sell their risk-free assets?

Keep name-calling me, but you are running away and why are you scared to provide answer to a simple question?
 
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