It's pissing you off by not going anywhere. Now imagine what happens when it drops -50% within a couple of days.
And those days are coming.
Bitcoin Price Thread
- Thread starter Magna
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It's pissing you off by not going anywhere. Now imagine what happens when it drops -50% within a couple of days.
And those days are coming.
Doing a good job of being ... a lousy predictor.
People keep calling BTC an exponential growth asset with price targets of $100k-$1,000k, and I keep pointing out that it’s underperformed everything from Gold to German and Japanese stocks since 2021, peak-to-peak basis - despite off-the-charts bullishness, ETF inflows and all the rest.
I’m agnostic on the next big move, but I can say with a high degree of confidence that this bull cycle will be a bitter disappointment to the crypto bros.
It was SUPPOSED to run up cause of halving, that' what my "jump the wagon" brain told me.
If this doesn't hit 100k by end of year, I'll hunt @johnarb down..
j/k...
not really
I will be gone never to be seen on ET if bitcoin does not hit $100,000/btc before 31-12-2024 at 11:59PM EST
Bitcoin is disguised as a get-rich-quick-scheme investment
but it is not, Bitcoin is a protect and grow your wealth long term life savings multi-generational wealth asset
Hodl forever
NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE, but if all you're looking for is to gain fiat wealth through bitcoin price appreciation,
You get better bang for your bucks buying 100 shares of MSTR today, wait 5-10 years, your investment will go from less than $200k to over $10M. You're welcome
Bitcoin is a different asset, decentralized, censorship-resistant, cannot be seized or confiscated, blah blah blah, it is not for you
Sell your bitcoin now and buy MSTRIf you look at the performance after the halving, the previous two times, it didn't do much for the first few months, so in a way, we are kind of exactly there. Specifically, on my chart where I plotted them, it was May of 2020 and bitcoin was about 9k. It didn't really get going until October, November, December, and ultimately peaked out in April, so almost a year later. A few example is clearly not statistically valid, but if we are looking for a repeat of previous behaviour, we shouldn't expect fireworks until a few more months.
Now saying all that, I am disappointed as well. All of this buying we are told that the ETFs are doing should be plenty of demand, but supply is clearly coming from somewhere. I don't see the supply shock or Omega candles that everyone is talking about. But at the same time, who really knows when it will come? If you truly believe that you own a scare asset that cannot be printed, there is likely to eventually be that order of 10 bitcoins that cannot get filled. There might be some exchange that goes down, selling paper bitcoin, and it starts a cascade. There might be a nation state that adopts bitcoin. Some oil producing country can announce they will accept bitcoin for oil.
When nickel spiked at the London exchange, those fuckers just closed up shop and busted a bunch of traders to reverse the damage. With bitcoin... good luck suppressing a price spike. If anything, an initial price spike will likely lead to an even bigger one. An initial price spike may bring in FOMO, and then that FOMO causes panic, and since we spent these past few months absorbing all of the selling from the whales, there might not be more supply. Maybe CME futures stops trading, but real bitcoin will keep trading.
I have no idea anymore how the price for these ETFs is set. If there are circuit breakers there, I'm not sure how that works when the spot market will still be open for business. By the time the regulated markets open, bitcoin might be a few multiples higher.
But of course, because all this demand is met with plenty of supply, I also worry that this bull market may be cut short and when enough people give up, it might cause a premature bear market before this bull market really got going.
There is a famous chart of the price of gold during the hyperinflation of Germany. There were many times where gold dumped 50%, so all the leveraged players got wiped out. With these ETFs, the selling is easy, and that is precisely why I'm also in them fairly heavy. I want to sell a bunch at 100k and hope to scale back in at lower prices. But since all of this selling will be easy, the dumps might be huge, followed but even bigger rallies. It could be a very bumpy ride.
All this selling is obviously coming from somewhere, but nobody knows for sure? That's even scarier. But then again, I thought everything was traceable on blockchain.
Don't fool yourself.
It's obvious this magical internet money propped up by Tether ponzi scam is INCHES away from a MAJOR collapse.
Favorable conditions (strong stocks) is keeping this junk asset and semi-ponzi scheme afloat.
From Donald Trump to Andrew Tate, Iggy Azalea and Dan Bilzerian. It's not hard to figure out which part of the cycle we are in when celebrities and even potential presidential candidates are touting shitcoins!
This was probably a bit basic and crypto bro of me.
Everyones circumstances are different.
Just dont want to see doubt and a hasty retreat turn into regret.
And Noah is spot on as usual,the pressure after halving has usually taken several months to build.
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All this selling is obviously coming from somewhere, but nobody knows for sure? That's even scarier. But then again, I thought everything was traceable on blockchain.
The big money tend to hold things in a range while they accumulate what they want.
There is a surge to the next level in the blink of an eye and then again they accumulate for weeks or months.
My guess is that is what we are seeing recently.
Pressure is pressure though and as weve all seen BTC is a different sort of beast.
Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
The surge that I alluded to earlier is why time in the market beats timing the market.If you are out for an hour you could miss it.