I guess my thinking is that bitcoin going to $1M isn't going to happen in a vacuum. When it gets there, it will be because so much is going wrong. This is why I keep saying that the government is going to push it there because of the stupidity of policies, and not that bitcoiners somehow just manage to create the most spectacular campaign.
It will also likely be the result of other major players accepting bitcoin. Consider that the Fed has to do yield curve control, and buy up most of the treasuries that they are issuing, very much like the state that Japan is in. US can of course never default, and USD will be the last fiat currency standing But knowing that someone has to buy the debt, and knowing that the bonds can't be trading at 10-20% yields, the Fed will have to step in and monetize all the debt. This will tell most people to just buy bitcoin instead of US debt.
And frankly, this is my best case scenario. Lets look at the facts. US is gonna be about $2T or more in deficit this year. At 5% rates, the interest expense is already the number 1 item. There is no war right now and apparently a good economy. Going forward, there is no ability to cut any spending. The only release valve is cutting interest rates. This if course ramps up inflation, unless the economy is so bad, that nobody is buying anything so inflation doesn't rise. If the economy is this bad, GDP is negative (if they even print this), and then tax receipts are even worse, and still the debt can't be paid.
There is no scenario where something doesn't break over the next couple of years. I guess we could see the biggest deflationary collapse where they don't do anything. They let asset prices fall, bitcoin tanks, everyone is unemployed, nobody can pay back debt, but cash is king and US treasuries are like gold. But how strong will the US be when everyone is in a great depression? So I don't see this as likely.
