Bitcoin Price Thread

[NoahA]

But the private sector is where all the campaign funding comes from. The private sector owns the government.

Agreed, for the private sector that is really a public/private enterprise, like any of Elon Musk's companies that run on government money, both Tesla with the car subsidies or SpaceX with the government contracts to send rockets into space.

Then we have the entire pharma industry that is all subsidized by government contracts. We all know what happened during Covid and how lucrative with was for Pfizer and others.

Oil is heavily subsidized as well. Heck, the entire military complex exists to protect the flow of oil.

You will still have lobbying no doubt to pass laws like tarriff duties and such. But with a bitcoin standard, the government won't have the money to give a car company $1B to build a batter plant which will only create 4,000 jobs. They also won't have money for any stupid solar or EV car rebates. This will cut corruption by 80% I'm sure. Government will still be able to play favourites, but they won't have cheap, printed money to distribute.

 

[Sprout]

This isn't my area of expertise. I don't understand how he would lose double. Maybe the position is a leveraged position. So if ETH goes up $500, then his position loses more than this. The reason I think to buy the spot was limit the losses over the weekend if price keep going higher since he can't touch the futures position until markets open. The second part goes over my head!

SomeCoin is $100/coin
goes long at $100 spot
goes short at $100 futures

Scenario 1
time passes
SomeCoin is $110/coin
His short futures position is -$10
If he had bought spot, he can pay back the short and only be -$10

If he has to buy spot at $110, he paid $10 more plus he’s out -$10 on the futures
therefore -$20

Scenario 2
Time passes
SomeCoin is $90/coin spot
His short futures is +$10

He exits both,
-$10 on spot
+$10 on futures
Trade’s a wash, $0 net profit

or
He only exits short, books the +$10 and has unrealized loss on his spot. Hold the spot if he thinks it’s gonna go up again or reinitiates a short to capture more downside.

He’s protected from it infinitely going against him by owning spot.

 

[schizo]

Bitcoin is like turning the world upside down. It isn't just one thing, its everything all at once. Its not only cutting out a donut, but its turning your whole life around. You quit your job, you leave your shitty girlfriend. You tell negative people in your life to go fuck themselves. You cancel Netflix and instead get a gym membership. You sell your car and buy a bike. When you walk you look up instead of down. When a girl smiles at you, you don't just smile back but you talk to her. Basically, you change everything in your life that isn't working for you all at once.

Sure, I agree it all sounds great in theory. But is it feasible in practice?

I don't think individuals with poor diet choices or poor self-esteem are the way they are merely due to economic reasons (although that certainly plays a role as well). As @deaddog already mentioned, it's more to do with their poor upbringing and bad habits. It's part of their collective DNA. So just cutting donuts out of your life ain't gonna help much IMO. Likewise, greed is part of human nature. Just replacing one form of currency for another ain't gonna fix the problem because greed (which is the source of all problems that we find ourselves in) will still remain. But can you eradicate greed? It would be a fool's errand to even discuss it, right? Hence, as pessimistic as this may sound, I don't think anything can change the bad habits of government spending. Not even Bitcoin.

And seriously, there's not one shred of evidence to suggest that Bitcoin will go up to $1M. It's all personal opinions floating freely on the web. But yet you talk as if that's already happened. What would happen if it goes down to $20K or lower? Will you feel any responsibility? You folks have no shame (not pointing to any individual but the entire Bitcoiner community).

 

[schizo]

SomeCoin is $100/coin
goes long at $100 spot
goes short at $100 futures

Scenario 1
time passes
SomeCoin is $110/coin
His short futures position is -$10
If he had bought spot, he can pay back the short and only be -$10

If he has to buy spot at $110, he paid $10 more plus he’s out -$10 on the futures
therefore -$20

Scenario 2
Time passes
SomeCoin is $90/coin spot
His short futures is +$10

He exits both,
-$10 on spot
+$10 on futures
Trade’s a wash, $0 net profit

or
He only exits short, books the +$10 and has unrealized loss on his spot. Hold the spot if he thinks it’s gonna go up again or reinitiates a short to capture more downside.

He’s protected from it infinitely going against him by owning spot.

WTF?? LOL

The whole point of "hedging" is to get out at the same time, thereby reducing your risk exposure--not try to time your exit arbitrarily.

 

[NoahA]

omeCoin is $100/coin
goes long at $100 spot
goes short at $100 futures

Scenario 1
time passes
SomeCoin is $110/coin
His short futures position is -$10
If he had bought spot, he can pay back the short and only be -$10

Isn't he at zero here? He went short and long at $100. So in the short he loses 10, in the long he gains $10.

I realize that with options, they never go naked short, and they buy a long at a different strike price, thereby limiting losses, but also profits. But in your example, there is no different strike price. If the position to go long and short is done at the same time, then there will be no gain or loss assuming you have the same trade size for the spot and futures.

 

[NoahA]

Likewise, greed is part of human nature. Just replacing one form of currency for another ain't gonna fix the problem because greed (which is the source of all problems that we find ourselves in) will still remain. But can you eradicate greed? It would be a fool's errand to even discuss it, right? Hence, as pessimistic as this may sound, I don't think anything can change the bad habits of government spending. Not even Bitcoin.

OMG... we are getting sooooo close!

I completely agree that greed underpins everything we do and that will never change. But you see, in one system, the fiat system, someone takes all the money now, and then money is borrowed, so all future money is taken as well. Then you get other countries to trade in only USD, so the US exports that inflation. So we get the cheap stuff, and they get the inflation. The greed eats up generations of productivity.

Then, you even lie about how much greed has stolen all the future productivity. You don't just borrow future income, but you also devalue that future income through inflation. Greed would be a monkey taking all the bananas on the tree. But what the US does through fiat is they make sure they also take next year's crop as well, and then they cut down every other banana tree to ensure there will be even less bananas for everyone else.

One thing people do worry about is that Bitcoin will just become captured and fractionalized, just like currency. I guess that's a worry, but the thing is that there is always a mechanism to do a proper audit. If your bank says they have 500k bitcoins in deposits, but you know that there are only 19 million coins to date, and 18.7m are account for, someone is cheating.

This is what I was saying about how bitcoin has not just one property that can change everything, but a shit ton of properties. Having a hard cap of 21 million creates scarcity, which is good. But also knowing that its easy to count it all up is also just as good. Knowing more cannot be created to paper over any shortfall is another huge benefit. And then, as icing on the cake, knowing that you can always withdraw your bitcoin and you can be your own bank means that any central authorities don't have an unfair advantage.

 

[NoahA]

One more point is this. If you change just one thing about the current system, imagine how much better everything would be.

A. Imagine if the Fed didn't rescue banks and allowed Silicon Valley depositors to go bust, only backstopping 250k in deposits. This would send a major message.

B. Imagine if the Fed couldn't buy any debt (which I think is even going against the constitution). Imagine if all they could do was sell debt, and any debt that wasn't bought by US citizens or foreigners had to be sold at higher yields to attract buyers. This would keep things in check. (or crash the system)

C. Imagine if there was an automatic mandate to keep borrowing within a certain percentage of GDP. (I know, they would likely just manipulate the numbers anyway)

My point is that this system is broken on practically every level. Just one hard change would do wonders for bringing things back in line (like cutting out a donut). I watch in so many podcasts about how the deficit being run so high in peace time right now is reckless. What does it matter that GDP is 2% or whatever if this slight gain is all government spending, and all of it is borrowed, and on top of this, most of this is also printed. Its one thing to borrow money, but its another thing to print the money that you need to borrow. These are end-game shenanigans. We know the economy is slowing for most people, and yet everything is being done to keep all cylinders firing. When the official slowdown finally hits, there will be no way other than massive printing to keep this charade going.

 

[The_Krakenite]

Fun fact. During the end phases of WW2, Patton was instructed to halt his forces in Europe and was refused to allow his desired attacks into Russia. Apparently, America couldn't afford any more war in that theatre, especially with Japan still to contend with elsewhere.

America is even poorer today (much more so), yet is somehow managing to fund that war against Russia.

Interesting...

 

[schizo]

One more point is this. If you change just one thing about the current system, imagine how much better everything would be.

A. Imagine if the Fed didn't rescue banks and allowed Silicon Valley depositors to go bust, only backstopping 250k in deposits. This would send a major message.

B. Imagine if the Fed couldn't buy any debt (which I think is even going against the constitution). Imagine if all they could do was sell debt, and any debt that wasn't bought by US citizens or foreigners had to be sold at higher yields to attract buyers. This would keep things in check. (or crash the system)

C. Imagine if there was an automatic mandate to keep borrowing within a certain percentage of GDP. (I know, they would likely just manipulate the numbers anyway)

My point is that this system is broken on practically every level. Just one hard change would do wonders for bringing things back in line (like cutting out a donut). I watch in so many podcasts about how the deficit being run so high in peace time right now is reckless. What does it matter that GDP is 2% or whatever if this slight gain is all government spending, and all of it is borrowed, and on top of this, most of this is also printed. Its one thing to borrow money, but its another thing to print the money that you need to borrow. These are end-game shenanigans. We know the economy is slowing for most people, and yet everything is being done to keep all cylinders firing. When the official slowdown finally hits, there will be no way other than massive printing to keep this charade going.

Again, those are all wonderful examples in theory. I've no complaint. However, I don't think anything will change for the better just because Bitcoin goes up to $1M, as far as government overspending or printing more money is concerned.

Maybe I'm just too dense to see it, but these are two separate issues. You're trying to rationalize the need for Bitcoin to rise to $1M based on the reason that our government is corrupt. Well, yes, they are corrupt. But Bitcoin's rise and government malfeasance have no direct relationship.

That said, I see only two scenarios where BTC could go to the moon and beyond:

1. Uncle Sam defaults
2. USD is devalued

However, while these are possible, it's highly unlikely.

 

[johnarb]

Sure, I agree it all sounds great in theory. But is it feasible in practice?

I don't think individuals with poor diet choices or poor self-esteem are the way they are merely due to economic reasons (although that certainly plays a role as well). As @deaddog already mentioned, it's more to do with their poor upbringing and bad habits. It's part of their collective DNA. So just cutting donuts out of your life ain't gonna help much IMO. Likewise, greed is part of human nature. Just replacing one form of currency for another ain't gonna fix the problem because greed (which is the source of all problems that we find ourselves in) will still remain. But can you eradicate greed? It would be a fool's errand to even discuss it, right? Hence, as pessimistic as this may sound, I don't think anything can change the bad habits of government spending. Not even Bitcoin.

And seriously, there's not one shred of evidence to suggest that Bitcoin will go up to $1M. It's all personal opinions floating freely on the web. But yet you talk as if that's already happened. What would happen if it goes down to $20K or lower? Will you feel any responsibility? You folks have no shame (not pointing to any individual but the entire Bitcoiner community).

You hate greed too much, lol. What the fuck is greed anyway? Why are Bitcoiners greedy as you say?

Bitcoin is going to $1M, and then higher

How does that make Bitcoiners greedy that we're saying bitcoin will go to $1M?

If bitcoin goes to $100k and stays there for the next 5 years, no volatility, does that make Bitcoiners not greedy?

Your logic fucked up, you only want bitcoin to go up but only limited, you say i$100k is ok with you, as if you get to decide what is the correct ceiling for a price of an asset that is freely traded on the market

If bitcoin goes to $20k, so what? bitcoin went to $15k already

There is no 4-year period where bitcoin is lower than it is. Look it up

My problem with you is that you are always focusing on fears, always spreading fears about price going down, that's all you do, 40k now is the new fear

You need to grow some manly balls

And you need to stop spreading fears just because you are always scared, not everyone is a coward like you, that is fearful of lower prices with their investments

It's part of the market, risk and reward

Stop being a pussy and grow up and grow some manly balls

No offense